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Week 5 PPR start/sit: where our model disagrees with consensus
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Our Week 5 start/sit calls focus on one question: where does the PropSims model disagree with the consensus? Consensus here is the average of two major public PPR projection sources, turned into a positional rank. We compare ranks only. A plus means our 10,000 simulations rank the player higher than consensus (lean start); a minus means lower (lean sit). Floors and ceilings tell you how to use the edge: favored this week, take the higher floor; underdog, chase the ceiling.
Early edition: Week 5 model run exported Oct 5, 2026, 11:26 PM CT (10,000 simulations per game). Injury statuses from ESPN's public feed as of Oct 5, 2026, 11:06 PM CT. Statuses, roles and prices change during the week; the live pages update with every model refresh. Model opinion for entertainment and information, not betting advice. 21+. Projections change with injury news; lines and salaries move, so check before entering.
QB start/sit: model vs consensus
Biggest start lean: Tyler Shough vs MIN is our QB6 but only QB18 by consensus. PPR median 17.1, floor 9.3, ceiling 26.2.
Biggest sit lean: Kyler Murray at NO ranks QB11 by consensus but QB23 in our simulations (median 13.5, floor 5.8, ceiling 22.9).
| Player | Matchup | PropSims rank | Consensus rank | vs consensus | Median | Floor (p10) | Ceiling (p85) | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough NO | vs MIN | QB6 | QB18 | +12 | 17.1 | 9.3 | 26.2 | Start lean |
| Malik Willis MIA | vs CIN | QB18 | QB27 | +9 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 23.2 | Start lean |
| Daniel Jones IND | at PIT | QB20 | QB29 | +9 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 23.4 | Start lean |
| Justin Herbert LAC | vs DEN | QB17 | QB25 | +8 | 15.1 | 7.9 | 23.3 | Start lean |
| C.J. Stroud HOU | at TEN | QB13 | QB19 | +6 | 16.2 | 8.8 | 24.9 | Start lean |
| Lamar Jackson BAL | at ATL | QB3 | QB6 | +3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 | Start lean |
| Kyler Murray MIN | at NO | QB23 | QB11 | −12 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 22.9 | Sit lean |
| Sam Darnold SEA | vs SF | QB22 | QB14 | −8 | 13.7 | 6.1 | 23.2 | Sit lean |
| Joe Burrow CIN | at MIA | QB9 | QB3 | −6 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 | Sit lean |
| Aaron Rodgers PIT | vs IND | QB19 | QB13 | −6 | 14.3 | 6.5 | 23.7 | Sit lean |
| Tyson Bagent CHI | at GB | QB24 | QB20 | −4 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 21.8 | Sit lean |
| Jared Goff DET | at ARI | QB5 | QB2 | −3 | 17.5 | 9.0 | 27.7 | Sit lean |
Players inside our top 20 or the consensus top 20 at QB, with a gap of 3+ spots. Full PPR.
RB start/sit: model vs consensus
Biggest start lean: Saquon Barkley at JAC is our RB19 but only RB54 by consensus. PPR median 10.7, floor 4.6, ceiling 18.8.
Biggest sit lean: Kenny Gainwell at DAL ranks RB33 by consensus but RB44 in our simulations (median 3.5, floor 0.1, ceiling 9.3).
| Player | Matchup | PropSims rank | Consensus rank | vs consensus | Median | Floor (p10) | Ceiling (p85) | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley PHI | at JAC | RB19 | RB54 | +35 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 18.8 | Start lean |
| Braelon Allen NYJ | vs CLE | RB14 | RB38 | +24 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 22.8 | Start lean |
| Jaylen Warren PIT | vs IND | RB3 | RB13 | +10 | 17.9 | 8.5 | 29.8 | Start lean |
| Emanuel Wilson SEA | vs SF | RB13 | RB20 | +7 | 13.2 | 5.0 | 24.8 | Start lean |
| George Holani SEA | vs SF | RB35 | RB40 | +5 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 12.2 | Start lean |
| Aaron Jones MIN | at NO | RB6 | RB10 | +4 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 28.7 | Start lean |
| Kenny Gainwell TB | at DAL | RB44 | RB33 | −11 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 9.3 | Sit lean |
| Bucky Irving TB | at DAL | RB21 | RB12 | −9 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 19.6 | Sit lean |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA | vs CIN | RB31 | RB22 | −9 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 16.7 | Sit lean |
| Jeremiyah Love ARI | vs DET | RB23 | RB15 | −8 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 18.4 | Sit lean |
| Kendre Miller NO | vs MIN | RB43 | RB35 | −8 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 9.8 | Sit lean |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE | vs LV | RB32 | RB25 | −7 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 16.7 | Sit lean |
Players inside our top 36 or the consensus top 36 at RB, with a gap of 3+ spots. Full PPR.
WR start/sit: model vs consensus
Biggest start lean: Tre Harris vs DEN is our WR30 but only WR52 by consensus. PPR median 9.3, floor 2.7, ceiling 18.3.
Biggest sit lean: Luther Burden III at GB ranks WR23 by consensus but WR43 in our simulations (median 7.4, floor 1.7, ceiling 16.0).
| Player | Matchup | PropSims rank | Consensus rank | vs consensus | Median | Floor (p10) | Ceiling (p85) | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Harris LAC | vs DEN | WR30 | WR52 | +22 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 18.3 | Start lean |
| Dontayvion Wicks PHI | at JAC | WR22 | WR42 | +20 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 19.8 | Start lean |
| Jordan Addison MIN | at NO | WR18 | WR37 | +19 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 21.1 | Start lean |
| Quentin Johnston LAC | vs DEN | WR38 | WR54 | +16 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 16.3 | Start lean |
| Makai Lemon PHI | at JAC | WR35 | WR50 | +15 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 14.2 | Start lean |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN | at LAC | WR12 | WR22 | +10 | 12.9 | 4.5 | 24.4 | Start lean |
| Luther Burden III CHI | at GB | WR43 | WR23 | −20 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 16.0 | Sit lean |
| Stefon Diggs WAS | vs NYG | WR44 | WR27 | −17 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 16.1 | Sit lean |
| Emeka Egbuka TB | at DAL | WR49 | WR33 | −16 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 14.2 | Sit lean |
| DJ Moore BUF | at LAR | WR41 | WR28 | −13 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 16.5 | Sit lean |
| Rome Odunze CHI | at GB | WR45 | WR34 | −11 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 16.0 | Sit lean |
| Devaughn Vele NO | vs MIN | WR46 | WR35 | −11 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 14.1 | Sit lean |
Players inside our top 42 or the consensus top 42 at WR, with a gap of 3+ spots. Full PPR.
TE start/sit: model vs consensus
Biggest start lean: Oronde Gadsden II vs DEN is our TE12 but only TE29 by consensus. PPR median 8.1, floor 1.9, ceiling 16.9.
Biggest sit lean: Isaiah Likely at WAS ranks TE5 by consensus but TE24 in our simulations (median 5.3, floor 1.2, ceiling 12.5).
| Player | Matchup | PropSims rank | Consensus rank | vs consensus | Median | Floor (p10) | Ceiling (p85) | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC | vs DEN | TE12 | TE29 | +17 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 16.9 | Start lean |
| Dalton Schultz HOU | at TEN | TE8 | TE19 | +11 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 17.5 | Start lean |
| Michael Mayer LV | at NE | TE14 | TE22 | +8 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 15.0 | Start lean |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN | at NO | TE5 | TE11 | +6 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 21.3 | Start lean |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | at LAR | TE9 | TE14 | +5 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 18.6 | Start lean |
| Hunter Henry NE | vs LV | TE10 | TE15 | +5 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 18.0 | Start lean |
| Isaiah Likely NYG | at WAS | TE24 | TE5 | −19 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 12.5 | Sit lean |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE | at NYJ | TE19 | TE7 | −12 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 14.2 | Sit lean |
| Colston Loveland CHI | at GB | TE21 | TE13 | −8 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 14.3 | Sit lean |
| Juwan Johnson NO | vs MIN | TE16 | TE10 | −6 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 15.3 | Sit lean |
| Mark Andrews BAL | at ATL | TE13 | TE9 | −4 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 16.3 | Sit lean |
| Sam LaPorta DET | at ARI | TE7 | TE4 | −3 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 19.0 | Sit lean |
Players inside our top 18 or the consensus top 18 at TE, with a gap of 3+ spots. Full PPR.
How to read these edges
A disagreement is not a guarantee. Public projections and ours use different inputs; our edge is the simulation of each game's full box score, including how injuries move targets and carries. The consensus ranks were taken from those public sources when this page was built (Oct 5, 2026, 11:54 PM CT). Only players both sources project are ranked.
More: PPR rankings by position, the start/sit tool, DFS projections, every game page and the Thursday TB at DAL showdown optimizer.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record