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Week 5 buy-low and sell-high trade targets (PPR)
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Buy-low and sell-high trade targets after Week 4, from one comparison: what a player has actually scored per game (ESPN's PPR scoring) against our Week 5 PPR mean, the model's current estimate of his weekly scoring. A big positive gap means the model expects more than he has delivered; a big negative gap means his production has run ahead of his projected role. 4 games are a small sample, which is exactly why gaps like these appear.
Early edition: Week 5 model run exported Oct 5, 2026, 11:26 PM CT (10,000 simulations per game). Injury statuses from ESPN's public feed as of Oct 5, 2026, 11:06 PM CT. Statuses, roles and prices change during the week; the live pages update with every model refresh. Model opinion for entertainment and information, not betting advice. 21+. Projections change with injury news; lines and salaries move, so check before entering.
Buy-low targets
Largest buy-low gap: Puka Nacua has averaged 10.0 PPR over 4 games, while our Week 5 mean is 21.4.
| Player | Pos | Games | Actual PPR/game | This week mean | Model minus actual | PropSims rank | ESPN rostered % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua LAR | WR | 4 | 10.0 | 21.4 | +11.4 | WR1 | 100% |
| Braelon Allen NYJ | RB | 4 | 6.5 | 14.3 | +7.8 | RB14 | 76% |
| Drake Maye NE | QB | 4 | 11.9 | 19.0 | +7.1 | QB2 | 87% |
| Saquon Barkley PHI | RB | 4 | 5.8 | 12.0 | +6.2 | RB19 | 100% |
| Nico Collins HOU | WR | 4 | 13.0 | 18.9 | +5.9 | WR5 | 99% |
| Emanuel Wilson SEA | RB | 4 | 9.5 | 15.3 | +5.8 | RB13 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones MIN | RB | 4 | 12.9 | 18.7 | +5.8 | RB6 | 93% |
| Jaylen Warren PIT | RB | 4 | 14.1 | 19.7 | +5.6 | RB3 | 91% |
| J.K. Dobbins DEN | RB | 4 | 5.2 | 10.7 | +5.5 | RB29 | 79% |
| Malik Willis MIA | QB | 4 | 10.4 | 15.7 | +5.3 | QB18 | 11% |
| Justin Herbert LAC | QB | 4 | 10.9 | 16.1 | +5.2 | QB17 | 73% |
| Makai Lemon PHI | WR | 4 | 4.0 | 9.1 | +5.1 | WR35 | 54% |
Players inside our weekly top 18 QB / 36 RB / 40 WR / 16 TE with a gap of +3 or more.
Sell-high candidates
Largest sell-high gap: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 29.2 PPR, 9.0 more per game than our Week 5 mean of 20.2.
| Player | Pos | Games | Actual PPR/game | This week mean | Model minus actual | PropSims rank | ESPN rostered % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | WR | 4 | 29.2 | 20.2 | −9.0 | WR3 | 100% |
| Brock Purdy SF | QB | 4 | 25.1 | 17.9 | −7.2 | QB10 | 97% |
| Brian Robinson ATL | RB | 4 | 12.1 | 5.2 | −6.9 | RB42 | 27% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL | WR | 4 | 28.0 | 21.5 | −6.5 | WR2 | 100% |
| Juwan Johnson NO | TE | 4 | 15.1 | 8.6 | −6.5 | TE16 | 75% |
| Isaiah Likely NYG | TE | 4 | 13.2 | 6.8 | −6.5 | TE24 | 89% |
| Chris Olave NO | WR | 4 | 22.5 | 16.2 | −6.3 | WR8 | 100% |
| Kalif Raymond CHI | WR | 4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | −6.2 | WR62 | 51% |
| Kirk Cousins LV | QB | 4 | 19.7 | 13.6 | −6.1 | QB27 | 17% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | RB | 4 | 29.0 | 23.5 | −5.5 | RB1 | 100% |
| Devaughn Vele NO | WR | 4 | 13.9 | 8.5 | −5.4 | WR46 | 65% |
| Josh Allen BUF | QB | 4 | 28.1 | 22.9 | −5.2 | QB1 | 100% |
Players averaging 10+ PPR whose actual scoring beats our Week 5 mean by 4+ points.
Projection risers and fallers
Players whose positional rank moved four or more spots from our Week 4 to our Week 5 projection. Matchups drive part of every move, so treat it as this week's signal, not a season-long verdict.
| Player | Pos | Last week rank | PropSims rank | Last week mean | This week mean | Change vs last week | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs NE | WR | WR50 | WR28 | 7.6 | 11.6 | +4.0 | vs LV |
| Drake Maye NE | QB | QB18 | QB2 | 16.8 | 19.0 | +2.2 | vs LV |
| Carnell Tate TEN | WR | WR41 | WR27 | 8.6 | 11.4 | +2.8 | vs HOU |
| Braelon Allen NYJ | RB | RB28 | RB14 | 10.0 | 14.3 | +4.3 | vs CLE |
| Malik Washington MIA | WR | WR46 | WR33 | 8.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 | vs CIN |
| Malik Nabers NYG | WR | WR32 | WR20 | 10.2 | 12.4 | +2.2 | at WAS |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN | WR | WR23 | WR12 | 12.1 | 14.9 | +2.8 | at LAC |
| Dak Prescott DAL | QB | QB14 | QB4 | 17.4 | 18.9 | +1.5 | vs TB |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN | WR | WR49 | WR39 | 7.6 | 9.3 | +1.7 | vs HOU |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC | TE | TE22 | TE12 | 6.9 | 9.7 | +2.8 | vs DEN |
| Stefon Diggs WAS | WR | WR20 | WR44 | 12.7 | 9.1 | −3.6 | vs NYG |
| DJ Moore BUF | WR | WR27 | WR41 | 10.8 | 9.2 | −1.6 | at LAR |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | WR | WR25 | WR36 | 10.9 | 9.4 | −1.5 | vs DEN |
| C.J. Stroud HOU | QB | QB5 | QB13 | 18.4 | 17.3 | −1.1 | at TEN |
| Alvin Kamara NO | RB | RB21 | RB28 | 11.4 | 10.5 | −0.9 | vs MIN |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE | TE | TE12 | TE19 | 8.8 | 8.0 | −0.8 | at NYJ |
| Daniel Jones IND | QB | QB13 | QB20 | 17.9 | 15.1 | −2.8 | at PIT |
| Bo Nix DEN | QB | QB4 | QB11 | 18.5 | 17.7 | −0.8 | at LAC |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN | WR | WR1 | WR7 | 20.3 | 16.3 | −4.0 | at MIA |
| Kenyon Sadiq NYJ | TE | TE9 | TE15 | 10.1 | 8.5 | −1.6 | vs CLE |
Rest-of-season rankings
We do not publish rest-of-season rankings yet. Our model simulates one week at a time, and a season-long projection needs multi-week role, schedule and injury modeling that we have not built and validated. The one rest-of-season number we do publish is the injury rule in our injury fallout article, which passed a holdout test.
More: PPR rankings by position, the start/sit tool, DFS projections, every game page and the Thursday TB at DAL showdown optimizer.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record