Floor, median and ceiling: what they mean and how to use them

On PropSims, the median is the middle of a player's 10,000 simulated outcomes, the floor (p10) is a bad-day score that only 1 in 10 simulations fall below, and the ceiling (p85) is a good-day score that only about 1 in 7 simulations beat.

The three numbers, defined

Every player projection on PropSims comes from simulating his game 10,000 times (how the simulations work). Sort those simulated scores from worst to best and read off three points:

Median (p50): the middle outcome. In half of the simulated games the player finishes above it, in half below. It's the number we call "our projection" in most tables.
Floor (p10): the 10th percentile. Only 1 simulated game in 10 is worse. Think of it as a realistic bad day, not the worst case: a player can and sometimes will score below his floor.
Ceiling (p85): the 85th percentile. Only about 1 simulated game in 7 is better. It's a good day that happens often enough to plan around, not a once-a-season outlier.

You'll see a few related numbers too. p90 is a bigger day (1 game in 10 is better) and shows up in some tables, such as ceiling points per $1,000 of salary. p15 pairs with p85: the middle 70% of outcomes sit between them. The range bar on our tables runs from floor to ceiling with the median marked; a wider bar means a less predictable player. Every term is in the glossary.

Why a range beats a single number

Two players can both project 14 points, one with a 9-19 range and one with a 3-30 range. A single projection treats them as equal. They aren't: the first is a steady starter, the second is boom-or-bust. Which one you want depends on your situation, and the range is what tells them apart.

Using floor and ceiling for start/sit

The Start/Sit assistant compares 2-4 players in the same simulated games and lets you choose a goal:

Most likely to outscore: the default. It ranks by head-to-head win %, the share of simulated games in which one player beats the other (ties count half).
Safe floor (I'm favored): if your team is projected to win this week, you want to avoid a disaster. Lean toward the higher floor.
Upside (I'm the underdog): if you need a big week to win, a steady 12 points won't do it. Lean toward the higher ceiling.

The same logic works on the season-long rankings and weekly positional rankings, which show median, floor and ceiling in PPR, half-PPR and standard. For close calls, the head-to-head matchup pages show both players' ranges side by side.

Using floor and ceiling for DFS

Our DFS projections list median, p10 floor and p85 ceiling for FanDuel and DraftKings, plus value (median points per $1,000 of salary).

Cash games (head-to-heads, 50/50s and double-ups) pay roughly the top half of the field. You don't need a huge score, you need to avoid a bad one, so a solid floor and a narrow range matter more.
Tournaments pay only the top of a large field, so you need players who can hit their ceiling on the same night. That's where correlation helps: our simulations play out each whole game, so a quarterback and his receivers tend to have their big days in the same simulated games.

An honest caveat: we have not found that building DFS lineups on the high end (p85) beats building on the mean, so our lineup optimizer and Showdown optimizer build on each player's mean projection by default. Median and 85th-percentile modes are there if you want them. The mean is the average of all simulated scores; because a few big games pull it up, it often sits a little above the median.

Using ranges for player props

On the props board, the same simulations give a probability for each side of a line: the share of simulated games over or under it. A line near a player's floor means the over hits in most simulated games; a line near his ceiling means it rarely does. The gap between our median and the line is shown in standard deviations of our distribution.

Limits to keep in mind

Our ranges are still slightly too narrow: a few more outcomes land outside floor-to-ceiling than the percentiles imply. Current figures are on the methodology page.
Floors and ceilings in PPR, half-PPR and standard use the spread calibration we fit on FanDuel scoring, so in those formats they are an approximation.
Team defenses (D/ST) show a mean only, with no floor or ceiling yet. Fumbles lost and 2-point conversions are left out of the distributions.

Related: PPR vs half-PPR vs standard · Player pages · Free DFS projections · Track record. Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.