PropPlayers › QB › HOU
Should I start C.J. Stroud in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · HOU vs DAL · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks C.J. Stroud QB13 in half-PPR for Week 4 (HOU vs DAL): a borderline start in a 12-team league. Median 16.6 points, floor 9.2 (p10), ceiling 25.8 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB13 (median 16.6). Standard: QB13 (median 16.6).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB13 | Borderline | 16.6 | 9.2 | 25.8 |
| Half-PPR | QB13 | Borderline | 16.6 | 9.2 | 25.8 |
| Standard | QB13 | Borderline | 16.6 | 9.2 | 25.8 |
Game environment: HOU market-implied team total 25.8 vs 22.8 for DAL (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 11% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: C.J. Stroud vs similar QBs
- C.J. Stroud or Deshaun Watson? C.J. Stroud outscores Deshaun Watson in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- C.J. Stroud or Joe Burrow? C.J. Stroud outscores Joe Burrow in 49% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- C.J. Stroud or Dak Prescott? C.J. Stroud outscores Dak Prescott in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- C.J. Stroud or Brock Purdy? C.J. Stroud outscores Brock Purdy in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- C.J. Stroud or Bo Nix? C.J. Stroud outscores Bo Nix in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- C.J. Stroud or Jacoby Brissett? C.J. Stroud outscores Jacoby Brissett in 54% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Joe Burrow (QB11), Dak Prescott (QB12), Brock Purdy (QB14), Bo Nix (QB15).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings