What is J.K. Dobbins's floor and ceiling in Week 4?

Half-PPR: floor 2.4, median 7.0, ceiling 15.3. PPR: 2.6 / 7.4 / 15.6. Standard: 2.3 / 6.7 / 15.0. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations.

Players › RB › DEN

Should I start J.K. Dobbins in Week 4?

Week 4, 2026 · DEN vs SF · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 4:48 AM ET

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PropSims ranks J.K. Dobbins RB24 in half-PPR for Week 4 (DEN vs SF): start in a 12-team league. Median 7.0 points, floor 2.4 (p10), ceiling 15.3 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB31 (median 7.4). Standard: RB23 (median 6.7).

Scoring	Rank	Call	Median	Floor p10	Ceiling p85
PPR	RB31	Borderline	7.4	2.6	15.6
Half-PPR	RB24	Start	7.0	2.4	15.3
Standard	RB23	Start	6.7	2.3	15.0

Game environment: DEN market-implied team total 23.0 vs 25.5 for SF (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 2% target share, 55% carry share, 42% snap rate (nflverse).

Close calls: J.K. Dobbins vs similar RBs

J.K. Dobbins or Emanuel Wilson? J.K. Dobbins outscores Emanuel Wilson in 48% of simulated games (half-PPR).
J.K. Dobbins or Bhayshul Tuten? J.K. Dobbins outscores Bhayshul Tuten in 47% of simulated games (half-PPR).
J.K. Dobbins or Rhamondre Stevenson? J.K. Dobbins outscores Rhamondre Stevenson in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
J.K. Dobbins or Omarion Hampton? J.K. Dobbins outscores Omarion Hampton in 50% of simulated games (half-PPR).
J.K. Dobbins or Cam Skattebo? J.K. Dobbins outscores Cam Skattebo in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).

Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Bhayshul Tuten (RB22), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB23), Omarion Hampton (RB25), George Holani (RB26).

Compare J.K. Dobbins with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →

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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings