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Week 5 injury fallout: who benefits in PPR
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
These are the significant injuries carried out of Week 4: every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end listed Questionable, Doubtful, Out or on Injured Reserve in ESPN's public injury feed whose Week 4 PPR projection was 7 points or more. For each one we show how our Week 5 early run treats him and which teammates' projections moved. Statuses are the feed's, not our reporting.
Early edition: Week 5 model run exported Oct 5, 2026, 11:07 PM CT (10,000 simulations per game). Injury statuses from ESPN's public feed as of Oct 5, 2026, 11:06 PM CT. Statuses, roles and prices change during the week; the live pages update with every model refresh. Model opinion for entertainment and information, not betting advice. 21+. Projections change with injury news; lines and salaries move, so check before entering.
Week 4 injuries at a glance
| Player | Pos | Injury status | Model treats him as | Last week mean | This week mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota WAS | QB | Doubtful (Knee - MCL) | Out (work redistributed) | 16.8 | — |
| Lamar Jackson BAL | QB | Questionable (Ankle) | Projected to play | 20.7 | 19.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN | WR | Questionable (Concussion) | Projected to play | 20.3 | 16.3 |
| Rashee Rice KC | WR | Questionable (Hamstring) | Out (work redistributed) | 16.4 | — |
| Tee Higgins CIN | WR | Questionable (Groin) | Projected to play | 14.1 | 14.7 |
| Jeremiyah Love ARI | RB | Questionable (Ankle) | Projected to play | 12.2 | 11.2 |
| Saquon Barkley PHI | RB | Questionable (Hamstring) | Projected to play | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | WR | Questionable (Foot) | Projected to play | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| DJ Moore BUF | WR | Questionable (Shoulder) | Projected to play | 10.8 | 9.2 |
| Mack Hollins NE | WR | Questionable (Calf) | Projected to play | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| Kyle Monangai CHI | RB | Questionable (Thumb) | Projected to play | 7.7 | 10.6 |
Injury status and body part: ESPN public injury feed. Means: our pre-game PPR projections (last week) and the Week 5 early run.
Who absorbs the work in our Week 5 projections
For players our early run already removes, the teammates below gained the most projected PPR from Week 4 to Week 5. The change includes the new matchup, so read it as where the work goes, not a pure injury effect.
| Injured player | Player | Pos | Last week mean | This week mean | Change vs last week | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 8.9 | 10.6 | +1.7 | vs NYG |
| Marcus Mariota | Kaytron Allen | RB | 2.2 | 2.8 | +0.6 | vs NYG |
Questionable and doubtful: projected to play for now
Our early run keeps these players in the lineup at their normal role. If one is ruled out, the live updater re-simulates his game and posts the who-benefits numbers on the news feed. Current projections: Lamar Jackson 19.0 PPR mean (questionable), Ja'Marr Chase 16.3 PPR mean (questionable), Tee Higgins 14.7 PPR mean (questionable), Jeremiyah Love 11.2 PPR mean (questionable), Saquon Barkley 12.0 PPR mean (questionable), Ladd McConkey 9.4 PPR mean (questionable), DJ Moore 9.2 PPR mean (questionable), Mack Hollins 9.3 PPR mean (questionable), Kyle Monangai 10.6 PPR mean (questionable).
With/without simulations we already have
For these Week 4 cases we ran each game twice, with and without the injured player (4,000 simulated games each). The change is the beneficiary's PPR mean with the injured player out minus with him active. The rest-of-season columns use our validated rule and apply only to multi-week absences; these were short-term designations.
| Injured player | Beneficiary | PPR before | After | Change | ROS PPR/game change | ROS total change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Bryant DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 12.2 | 13.1 | +0.9 | short-term | — |
| Pat Bryant DEN | Evan Engram | 5.0 | 5.7 | +0.7 | short-term | — |
| Pat Bryant DEN | Courtland Sutton | 9.6 | 10.2 | +0.6 | short-term | — |
| Tyquan Thornton KC | Xavier Worthy | 8.5 | 9.3 | +0.8 | short-term | — |
| Tyquan Thornton KC | Travis Kelce | 12.3 | 13.0 | +0.7 | short-term | — |
| Tyquan Thornton KC | Rashee Rice | 16.4 | 17.0 | +0.6 | short-term | — |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | Tre' Harris | 9.2 | 11.3 | +2.1 | short-term | — |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | Quentin Johnston | 9.2 | 11.0 | +1.8 | short-term | — |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | Oronde Gadsden II | 6.6 | 7.7 | +1.1 | short-term | — |
| Noah Fant NO | Devaughn Vele | 8.2 | 8.9 | +0.7 | short-term | — |
| Noah Fant NO | Chris Olave | 16.2 | 16.8 | +0.6 | short-term | — |
Rest of season
Our rest-of-season rule passed validation on 2023–2024 holdout seasons: for multi-week absences, a beneficiary keeps about 27% of his first-week with/without gain per game (holdout error 3.635 vs 4.318 for assuming no change). We publish a rest-of-season number only when a with/without run exists and the absence is multi-week. Season-long values beyond that are not modeled: the model simulates one week at a time.
More: PPR rankings by position, the start/sit tool, DFS projections, every game page and the Thursday TB at DAL showdown optimizer, plus the Week 5 waiver wire.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record