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Should I start Josh Allen in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · BUF vs NE · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Josh Allen QB1 in half-PPR for Week 4 (BUF vs NE): start in a 12-team league. Median 21.9 points, floor 12.3 (p10), ceiling 32.7 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB1 (median 21.9). Standard: QB1 (median 21.9).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB1 | Start | 21.9 | 12.3 | 32.7 |
| Half-PPR | QB1 | Start | 21.9 | 12.3 | 32.7 |
| Standard | QB1 | Start | 21.9 | 12.3 | 32.7 |
Game environment: BUF market-implied team total 28.5 vs 21.5 for NE (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 1% target share, 27% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Josh Allen vs similar QBs
- Josh Allen or Tyler Shough? Josh Allen outscores Tyler Shough in 55% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes? Josh Allen outscores Patrick Mahomes in 63% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Josh Allen outscores Lamar Jackson in 64% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Tyler Shough (QB2), Patrick Mahomes (QB3).
Compare Josh Allen with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings