PropGame recaps › Week 4
Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Cowboys beat the Texans 34-30 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 14 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 10 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (71%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 5.7 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Jaylin Noel scored 10.4 FanDuel points against a projected median of 1.6 (90th percentile 6.5).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 15.2 | 12.4 | 4.4–29.6 | 33.4 | above range |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 14.2 | 12.1 | 4.7–26.6 | 28.8 | above range |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 13.4 | 10.7 | 3.3–27.2 | 27.3 | above range |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 19.5 | 17.9 | 10.3–30.7 | 23.1 | in range |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 18.6 | 17.2 | 9.5–29.8 | 18.1 | in range |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 12.0 | 9.8 | 3.1–24.2 | 8.5 | in range |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | WR | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.0–6.5 | 10.4 | above range |
| David Montgomery | HOU | RB | 8.7 | 6.9 | 1.5–18.4 | 4.3 | in range |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 8.2 | 6.4 | 1.7–17.5 | 1.9 | in range |
| Woody Marks | HOU | RB | 6.5 | 4.6 | 0.5–15.2 | 8.2 | in range |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 5.2 | 4.0 | 0.7–11.2 | 6.1 | in range |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 6.0 | 4.4 | 0.9–13.5 | 2.6 | in range |
| Jawhar Jordan | HOU | RB | 6.0 | 4.5 | 0.9–13.0 | — | no box-score line |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.4–11.8 | 5.7 | in range |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU | WR | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.0–9.0 | 5.1 | in range |
| Tyler Goodson | DAL | RB | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.0–7.4 | 1.2 | in range |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.9 | 2.5 | above range |
| Foster Moreau | HOU | TE | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.0–5.0 | 0.6 | in range |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0–4.6 | 0.0 | in range |
| Dominique Robinson | HOU | WR | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.8 | 0.0 | in range |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 0.0 | in range |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 0.7 | in range |
| Jonathan Mingo | DAL | WR | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.7 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Pass yds | 240.0 | 156.0–327.0 | 347 | above |
| C.J. Stroud | Pass TD | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| C.J. Stroud | Rush yds | 12.0 | 0.0–37.0 | 12 | in range |
| Dak Prescott | Pass yds | 236.0 | 142.0–343.0 | 335 | in range |
| Dak Prescott | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
| Dak Prescott | Rush yds | 12.0 | 0.0–38.0 | 7 | in range |
| CeeDee Lamb | Rec yds | 75.0 | 27.0–164.0 | 189 | above |
| CeeDee Lamb | Catches | 6.0 | 2.0–10.0 | 17 | above |
| Javonte Williams | Rush yds | 57.0 | 27.0–117.0 | 62 | in range |
| Javonte Williams | Carries | 15.0 | 9.0–22.0 | 19 | in range |
| Javonte Williams | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–5.0 | 5 | in range |
| Nico Collins | Rec yds | 59.0 | 19.0–136.0 | 118 | in range |
| Nico Collins | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 7 | in range |
| George Pickens | Rec yds | 56.0 | 17.0–127.0 | 75 | in range |
| George Pickens | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–9.0 | 2 | in range |
| David Montgomery | Rush yds | 29.0 | 8.0–72.0 | 24 | in range |
| David Montgomery | Carries | 9.0 | 5.0–15.0 | 10 | in range |
| David Montgomery | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 0 | in range |
| Dalton Schultz | Rec yds | 35.0 | 10.0–87.0 | 9 | below |
| Dalton Schultz | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–8.0 | 2 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 32 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (7 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 4 won, 3 lost, for +0.68 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 4-3; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 25 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 7 won, 18 lost, −11.66 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | Catches | Under 5.5 | −136 FanDuel | +2.2% | Yes (fair) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Woody Marks | Rush yds | Under 36.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.6% | Yes (fair) | 22 | Win | +0.89 |
| Dalton Schultz | Catches | Under 4.5 | −120 FanDuel | +0.7% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +0.83 |
| Ryan Flournoy | Catches | Under 3.5 | −136 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| George Pickens | Catches | Under 4.5 | +108 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +1.08 |
| David Montgomery | Rush yds | Under 44.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 24 | Win | +0.89 |
| George Pickens | Rec yds | Under 68.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.0% | Yes (fair) | 75 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Woody Marks | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −112 DraftKings | +39.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Woody Marks | Catches | Under 1.5 | −102 FanDuel | +37.4% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.98 |
| Foster Moreau | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +700 Caesars | +35.8% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kayshon Boutte | Rec yds | Under 23.5 | −112 DraftKings | +31.5% | No (raw sim) | 36 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Nico Collins | Catches | Under 5.5 | −116 DraftKings | +31.1% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Nico Collins | Rec yds | Under 72.5 | −113 FanDuel | +25.5% | No (raw sim) | 118 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Foster Moreau | Catches | Over 1.5 | +154 FanDuel | +25.1% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| David Montgomery | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +24.8% | No (raw sim) | 19 | Loss | −1.00 |
| David Montgomery | Catches | Under 1.5 | −105 BetMGM | +23.4% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.95 |
| Dak Prescott | Pass yds | Under 266.5 | −113 FanDuel | +22.9% | No (raw sim) | 335 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ryan Flournoy | Rec yds | Under 33.5 | −112 DraftKings | +22.1% | No (raw sim) | 37 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Javonte Williams | Rec yds | Under 13.5 | −113 FanDuel | +19.6% | No (raw sim) | 21 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dalton Schultz | Catches | Under 4.5 | −117 DraftKings | +17.3% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.85 |
| Javonte Williams | Catches | Under 2.5 | −110 BetMGM | +14.6% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dalton Schultz | Rec yds | Under 40.5 | −113 FanDuel | +11.4% | No (raw sim) | 9 | Win | +0.89 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Catches | Under 2.5 | −115 BetMGM | +10.9% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jake Ferguson | Rec yds | Under 23.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.7% | No (raw sim) | 11 | Win | +0.89 |
| Foster Moreau | Rec yds | Over 6.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.6% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| CeeDee Lamb | Catches | Under 5.5 | −102 FanDuel | +8.0% | No (raw sim) | 17 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Rec yds | Under 27.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.3% | No (raw sim) | 46 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dak Prescott | Rush yds | Over 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.5% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Javonte Williams | Rush yds | Under 59.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.4% | No (raw sim) | 62 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jaylin Noel | Rec yds | Under 11.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.7% | No (raw sim) | 85 | Loss | −1.00 |
| CeeDee Lamb | Rec yds | Under 76.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.2% | No (raw sim) | 189 | Loss | −1.00 |
| C.J. Stroud | Rush yds | Over 11.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | No (raw sim) | 12 | Win | +0.89 |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 2 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 15 won, 25 lost.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record