PropGame recaps › Week 4
Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Rams beat the Eagles 24-20 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 12 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 9 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (75%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 7.6 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Darius Cooper scored 16.8 FanDuel points against a projected median of 1.0 (90th percentile 5.1).
Where we were too high: Saquon Barkley managed 1.5 points against a 9.6 median (10th percentile 3.9). Our injury feed listed him as questionable after kickoff (first seen 12:30 PM CT).
Status changes our injury feed showed after kickoff: Tank Bigsby (5.5 points), questionable from 3:16 PM CT.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.2–28.0 | 31.7 | above range |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 15.9 | 13.1 | 4.7–30.5 | 23.2 | in range |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 18.1 | 16.8 | 9.7–28.3 | 13.5 | in range |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 17.2 | 15.7 | 7.3–29.2 | 11.7 | in range |
| Darius Cooper | PHI | WR | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.0–5.1 | 16.8 | above range |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | 13.9 | 11.1 | 3.4–28.2 | 5.2 | in range |
| Dontayvion Wicks | PHI | WR | 12.2 | 9.8 | 2.7–25.5 | 3.3 | in range |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 11.4 | 9.6 | 3.9–21.6 | 1.5 | below range |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.5–11.6 | 9.2 | in range |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | WR | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.1–15.1 | 4.2 | in range |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.2–13.7 | 2.6 | in range |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | RB | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.0–6.9 | 5.5 | in range |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | TE | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.0–6.9 | 2.3 | in range |
| Johnny Mundt | PHI | TE | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.0–5.8 | — | no box-score line |
| Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.0–7.3 | 1.2 | in range |
| Will Shipley | PHI | RB | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.0–5.4 | 2.3 | in range |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0–3.1 | 0.0 | in range |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.1 | 1.3 | in range |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 0.9 | in range |
| E.J. Jenkins | PHI | TE | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.1 | 0.0 | in range |
| Dean Connors | LAR | RB | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.8 | 0.0 | in range |
| Britain Covey | PHI | WR | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | Pass yds | 240.0 | 141.0–333.0 | 93 | below |
| Jalen Hurts | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Jalen Hurts | Rush yds | 18.0 | 1.0–50.0 | 18 | in range |
| Matthew Stafford | Pass yds | 235.0 | 141.0–342.0 | 317 | in range |
| Matthew Stafford | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 0 | in range |
| Matthew Stafford | Rush yds | 1.0 | -1.0–16.0 | 10 | in range |
| Puka Nacua | Rec yds | 74.0 | 27.0–158.0 | 125 | in range |
| Puka Nacua | Catches | 6.0 | 3.0–10.0 | 9 | in range |
| Kyren Williams | Rush yds | 61.0 | 30.0–122.0 | 80 | in range |
| Kyren Williams | Carries | 14.0 | 8.0–21.0 | 16 | in range |
| Kyren Williams | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 10 | above |
| Davante Adams | Rec yds | 66.0 | 20.0–154.0 | 32 | in range |
| Davante Adams | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 4 | in range |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Rec yds | 55.0 | 15.0–130.0 | 18 | in range |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–7.0 | 3 | in range |
| Saquon Barkley | Rush yds | 51.0 | 23.0–105.0 | 8 | below |
| Saquon Barkley | Carries | 13.0 | 8.0–20.0 | 2 | below |
| Saquon Barkley | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
| Makai Lemon | Rec yds | 34.0 | 10.0–79.0 | 27 | in range |
| Makai Lemon | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 3 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 31 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (7 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 3 won, 4 lost, for −1.11 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 3-3; overs 0-1.
Not in the official record: 24 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 12 won, 12 lost, −1.28 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Cooper | Catches | Under 1.5 | +118 FanDuel | +6.2% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Davante Adams | Catches | Under 4.5 | +112 FanDuel | +3.2% | Yes (fair) | 4 | Win | +1.12 |
| Darius Cooper | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.8% | Yes (fair) | 33 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalen Hurts | Rush yds | Under 28.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.8% | Yes (fair) | 18 | Win | +0.89 |
| Matthew Stafford | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +2200 FanDuel | +0.5% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Saquon Barkley | Rush yds | Under 68.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.4% | Yes (fair) | 8 | Win | +0.89 |
| Puka Nacua | Catches | Under 6.5 | −108 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 9 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Darius Cooper | Catches | Under 1.5 | +128 BetOnline | +94.0% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Matthew Stafford | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +1600 BetMGM | +73.6% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tank Bigsby | Catches | Over 0.5 | +209 BetOnline | +69.9% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Darius Cooper | Rec yds | Under 21.5 | −112 DraftKings | +64.1% | No (raw sim) | 33 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalen Hurts | Pass yds | Over 184.5 | −112 DraftKings | +51.0% | No (raw sim) | 93 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalen Hurts | Rush yds | Under 26.5 | −112 DraftKings | +28.1% | No (raw sim) | 18 | Win | +0.89 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Catches | Over 3.5 | −140 Fanatics | +26.6% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Matthew Stafford | Rush yds | Over 0.5 | −105 Bovada | +22.8% | No (raw sim) | 10 | Win | +0.95 |
| Makai Lemon | Rec yds | Under 36.5 | −112 DraftKings | +22.7% | No (raw sim) | 27 | Win | +0.89 |
| Blake Corum | Rush yds | Under 39.5 | −113 FanDuel | +14.3% | No (raw sim) | 14 | Win | +0.89 |
| Johnny Mundt | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +13.4% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Davante Adams | Catches | Under 4.5 | −105 BetMGM | +13.0% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Win | +0.95 |
| Tank Bigsby | Rush yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +11.6% | No (raw sim) | 55 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Zach Ertz | Catches | Under 2.5 | −120 Bovada | +11.2% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.83 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +190 BetRivers | +10.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Zach Ertz | Rec yds | Under 21.5 | −113 FanDuel | +9.3% | No (raw sim) | 13 | Win | +0.89 |
| Saquon Barkley | Rec yds | Under 15.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.9% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.89 |
| Davante Adams | Rec yds | Under 68.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.4% | No (raw sim) | 32 | Win | +0.89 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | Rec yds | Over 56.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.2% | No (raw sim) | 18 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Matthew Stafford | Pass yds | Under 249.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.7% | No (raw sim) | 317 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyren Williams | Rec yds | Under 13.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.5% | No (raw sim) | 67 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Puka Nacua | Rec yds | Over 66.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.8% | No (raw sim) | 125 | Win | +0.89 |
| Saquon Barkley | Catches | Over 2.5 | +130 BetRivers | +4.3% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyren Williams | Rush yds | Over 56.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.1% | No (raw sim) | 80 | Win | +0.89 |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 2 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 16 won, 14 lost.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record