PropGame recaps › Week 4
Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: New York Giants 36, Arizona Cardinals 24 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 13 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 8 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (62%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 5.9 FanDuel points.
Biggest upside surprise: Elijah Higgins scored 8.9 FanDuel points against a projected median of 0.9 (90th percentile 2.5).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 8.6 | 6.7 | 1.4–18.3 | 20.2 | above range |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | QB | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.3–22.7 | 20.0 | in range |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | 18.7 | 17.3 | 9.4–30.3 | 13.4 | in range |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 11.9 | 9.8 | 3.4–24.1 | 13.0 | in range |
| Malachi Fields | NYG | WR | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.0–8.9 | 12.2 | above range |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 12.1 | 10.3 | 3.8–22.8 | 7.1 | in range |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 12.1 | 10.0 | 3.4–24.3 | 6.6 | in range |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | RB | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.1–9.8 | 11.9 | above range |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | RB | 10.9 | 9.3 | 3.2–21.1 | 6.8 | in range |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.0–11.4 | 10.1 | in range |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI | TE | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.0–2.5 | 8.9 | above range |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.0–11.9 | 7.7 | in range |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.0–3.7 | 7.6 | above range |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI | WR | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.0–9.8 | — | no box-score line |
| Najee Harris | NYG | RB | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.1–10.4 | 1.0 | in range |
| Bam Knight | ARI | RB | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.0–8.9 | — | no box-score line |
| Darnell Mooney | NYG | WR | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.0–7.5 | 0.0 | in range |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | RB | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.0–6.2 | 0.0 | in range |
| Hunter Long | ARI | TE | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.4 | 1.5 | above range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | Pass yds | 236.0 | 138.0–327.0 | 166 | in range |
| Jacoby Brissett | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Jacoby Brissett | Rush yds | 8.0 | 0.0–30.0 | 18 | in range |
| Jameis Winston | Pass yds | 172.0 | 91.0–261.0 | 250 | in range |
| Jameis Winston | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 3 | in range |
| Jameis Winston | Rush yds | 7.0 | 0.0–26.0 | 0 | in range |
| Cam Skattebo | Rush yds | 47.0 | 20.0–100.0 | 58 | in range |
| Cam Skattebo | Carries | 15.0 | 9.0–21.0 | 18 | in range |
| Cam Skattebo | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
| Trey McBride | Rec yds | 49.0 | 20.0–107.0 | 31 | in range |
| Trey McBride | Catches | 6.0 | 3.0–10.0 | 7 | in range |
| Michael Wilson | Rec yds | 52.0 | 18.0–119.0 | 95 | in range |
| Michael Wilson | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–9.0 | 7 | in range |
| Jeremiyah Love | Rush yds | 35.0 | 12.0–83.0 | 63 | in range |
| Jeremiyah Love | Carries | 10.0 | 6.0–17.0 | 14 | in range |
| Jeremiyah Love | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–5.0 | 1 | in range |
| Malik Nabers | Rec yds | 30.0 | 6.0–76.0 | 112 | above |
| Malik Nabers | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 6 | in range |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Rec yds | 25.0 | 0.0–78.0 | 12 | in range |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 33 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (11 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 5 won, 5 lost, 1 void (did not play), for −0.42 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 5-5; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 22 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 9 won, 11 lost, 2 void, −3.23 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | Catches | Under 4.5 | −102 FanDuel | +4.8% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Likely | Catches | Under 3.5 | +126 FanDuel | +4.7% | Yes (fair) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jeremiyah Love | Rush yds | Under 66.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.2% | Yes (fair) | 63 | Win | +0.89 |
| Cam Skattebo | Catches | Under 2.5 | −108 FanDuel | +2.0% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.93 |
| Malik Nabers | Rec yds | Under 54.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.6% | Yes (fair) | 112 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Likely | Rec yds | Under 41.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.3% | Yes (fair) | 66 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyler Allgeier | Rush yds | Under 21.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cam Skattebo | Rec yds | Under 18.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 8 | Win | +0.89 |
| Darnell Mooney | Catches | Under 1.5 | +100 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +1.00 |
| Cam Skattebo | Rush yds | Under 62.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.0% | Yes (fair) | 58 | Win | +0.89 |
| Bam Knight | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +1600 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | — | Void | — |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Catches | Under 2.5 | −114 FanDuel | +40.8% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.88 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Rec yds | Under 34.5 | −113 FanDuel | +34.5% | No (raw sim) | 12 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tyler Allgeier | Rush yds | Under 18.5 | −112 DraftKings | +34.3% | No (raw sim) | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jeremiyah Love | Rec yds | Under 16.5 | −113 FanDuel | +31.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jeremiyah Love | Catches | Under 2.5 | +115 BetMGM | +26.6% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +1.15 |
| Najee Harris | Rush yds | Under 23.5 | −113 FanDuel | +26.5% | No (raw sim) | 30 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cam Skattebo | Catches | Under 2.5 | −115 Bovada | +21.4% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.87 |
| Malachi Fields | Rec yds | Under 22.5 | −112 DraftKings | +19.0% | No (raw sim) | 52 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Darnell Mooney | Rec yds | Under 18.5 | −113 FanDuel | +18.1% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Trey McBride | Rec yds | Under 63.5 | −113 FanDuel | +17.0% | No (raw sim) | 31 | Win | +0.89 |
| Michael Wilson | Rec yds | Under 56.5 | −113 FanDuel | +14.0% | No (raw sim) | 95 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Elijah Higgins | Rec yds | Under 4.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.2% | No (raw sim) | 19 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jameis Winston | Pass yds | Over 208.5 | −112 DraftKings | +8.4% | No (raw sim) | 250 | Win | +0.89 |
| Michael Wilson | Catches | Under 5.5 | −156 BetOnline | +6.1% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jameis Winston | Rush yds | Over 5.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.8% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Trey McBride | Catches | Under 6.5 | −105 BetMGM | +5.5% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Theo Johnson | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.8% | No (raw sim) | 11 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Elijah Higgins | Catches | Under 0.5 | +115 Bovada | +3.6% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jacoby Brissett | Pass yds | Over 230.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.7% | No (raw sim) | 166 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Theo Johnson | Catches | Under 1.5 | −225 BetMGM | +0.2% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.44 |
| Kendrick Bourne | Catches | Over 2.5 | +130 Bovada | +5.3% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Kendrick Bourne | Rec yds | Over 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +2.6% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 2 won, 3 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 22 won, 17 lost, 1 pushed, 1 void.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record