PropGame recaps › Week 4
Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 8:30 AM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 12 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 8 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (67%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 5.3 FanDuel points.
Biggest upside surprise: Treylon Burks scored 11.2 FanDuel points against a projected median of 2.6 (90th percentile 9.8).
The biggest miss on the low side: Marcus Mariota managed 5.3 points against a 16.5 median (10th percentile 9.6). Our injury feed listed him as questionable after kickoff (first seen 9:11 AM CT).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 20.3 | 18.1 | 7.8–35.5 | 22.2 | in range |
| Daniel Jones | IND | QB | 19.1 | 17.4 | 9.5–31.0 | 8.9 | below range |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | QB | 17.8 | 16.5 | 9.6–27.9 | 5.3 | below range |
| Josh Downs | IND | WR | 11.5 | 9.2 | 2.7–23.8 | 3.1 | in range |
| Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.0–9.8 | 11.2 | above range |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | 10.6 | 8.6 | 2.7–21.7 | 6.0 | in range |
| Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 10.2 | 8.4 | 2.6–20.5 | 6.6 | in range |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 8.6 | 6.8 | 1.9–17.8 | 6.0 | in range |
| Dyami Brown | WAS | WR | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.0–7.2 | 8.0 | above range |
| Antonio Williams | WAS | WR | 7.3 | 5.7 | 1.3–15.9 | 3.6 | in range |
| Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.4–14.8 | 4.5 | in range |
| Laquon Treadwell | IND | WR | 5.3 | 4.0 | 0.0–11.3 | 6.7 | in range |
| Ashton Dulin | IND | WR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–4.5 | 4.4 | in range |
| Seth McGowan | IND | RB | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.0–3.4 | 4.3 | above range |
| Chig Okonkwo | WAS | TE | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.0–9.4 | 1.5 | in range |
| Kaytron Allen | WAS | RB | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0–6.7 | 0.1 | in range |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.0–5.4 | 0.0 | in range |
| Deion Burks | IND | WR | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.0–4.3 | 1.1 | in range |
| Colson Yankoff | WAS | TE | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0–2.7 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | Rush yds | 76.0 | 42.0–144.0 | 95 | in range |
| Jonathan Taylor | Carries | 19.0 | 12.0–28.0 | 20 | in range |
| Jonathan Taylor | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 1 | in range |
| Daniel Jones | Pass yds | 235.0 | 150.0–333.0 | 143 | below |
| Daniel Jones | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 0 | in range |
| Daniel Jones | Rush yds | 8.0 | 0.0–32.0 | 2 | in range |
| Marcus Mariota | Pass yds | 228.0 | 145.0–323.0 | 46 | below |
| Marcus Mariota | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 0 | in range |
| Marcus Mariota | Rush yds | 17.0 | 0.0–47.1 | 35 | in range |
| Josh Downs | Rec yds | 46.0 | 14.0–109.0 | 16 | in range |
| Josh Downs | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 3 | in range |
| Stefon Diggs | Rec yds | 47.0 | 15.0–108.0 | 35 | in range |
| Stefon Diggs | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 5 | in range |
| Tyler Warren | Rec yds | 39.0 | 15.0–89.0 | 41 | in range |
| Tyler Warren | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–10.0 | 5 | in range |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Rush yds | 39.0 | 14.0–88.0 | 15 | in range |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Carries | 12.0 | 7.0–18.0 | 9 | in range |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 2 | in range |
| Antonio Williams | Rec yds | 33.0 | 7.0–86.0 | 21 | in range |
| Antonio Williams | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 3 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 31 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (12 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 8 won, 4 lost, for +3.51 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 8-4; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 19 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 7 won, 9 lost, 3 void, −1.67 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | Catches | Under 1.5 | +118 FanDuel | +8.1% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Josh Downs | Catches | Under 6.5 | −102 FanDuel | +3.6% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.98 |
| Josh Downs | Rec yds | Under 70.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.7% | Yes (fair) | 16 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Rush yds | Under 60.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.4% | Yes (fair) | 15 | Win | +0.89 |
| Seth McGowan | Rush yds | Under 6.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.2% | Yes (fair) | 31 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Treylon Burks | Catches | Under 1.5 | +120 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +1.20 |
| Marcus Mariota | Rush yds | Under 26.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | 35 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jonathan Taylor | Rush yds | Under 89.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | 95 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chig Okonkwo | Catches | Under 3.5 | −140 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +0.71 |
| Tyler Warren | Catches | Under 5.5 | +108 FanDuel | +0.7% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Win | +1.08 |
| Stefon Diggs | Catches | Under 5.5 | −114 FanDuel | +0.6% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Win | +0.88 |
| Tyler Warren | Rec yds | Under 57.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.5% | Yes (fair) | 41 | Win | +0.89 |
| Austin Ekeler | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +650 BetRivers | +94.8% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Laquon Treadwell | Catches | Under 1.5 | +110 Fanatics | +73.8% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Laquon Treadwell | Rec yds | Under 25.5 | −113 FanDuel | +55.5% | No (raw sim) | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Rec yds | Under 5.5 | −115 BetOnline | +45.6% | No (raw sim) | 35 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chig Okonkwo | Rec yds | Under 29.5 | −113 FanDuel | +35.4% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Catches | Under 1.5 | −189 BetOnline | +32.1% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Treylon Burks | Catches | Under 1.5 | +114 BetOnline | +29.8% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +1.14 |
| Kaytron Allen | Rush yds | Under 13.5 | −113 FanDuel | +25.5% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.89 |
| Treylon Burks | Rec yds | Under 17.5 | −113 FanDuel | +24.3% | No (raw sim) | 47 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Josh Downs | Catches | Under 6.5 | −115 BetMGM | +24.0% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +0.87 |
| Marcus Mariota | Pass yds | Over 203.5 | −113 FanDuel | +23.8% | No (raw sim) | 46 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Daniel Jones | Rush yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.2% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.89 |
| Daniel Jones | Pass yds | Over 219.5 | −113 FanDuel | +11.2% | No (raw sim) | 143 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dyami Brown | Catches | Over 1.5 | +178 BetOnline | +9.0% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +1.78 |
| Jonathan Taylor | Catches | Over 2.5 | −116 BetOnline | +6.8% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Antonio Williams | Rec yds | Under 27.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.4% | No (raw sim) | 21 | Win | +0.89 |
| Darius Slayton | Catches | Over 1.5 | +165 BetRivers | +45.5% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Luke McCaffrey | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +1200 BetRivers | +29.3% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Darius Slayton | Rec yds | Over 13.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.6% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 3 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 13 won, 14 lost, 7 void.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record