PropGame recaps › Week 4
New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 13 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 9 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (69%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 6.5 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Keon Coleman scored 20.6 FanDuel points against a projected median of 3.5 (90th percentile 10.3).
Where we were too high: Dalton Kincaid managed 1.2 points against a 7.3 median (10th percentile 1.6).
Status changes our injury feed showed after kickoff: DJ Moore (2.2 points), questionable from 1:21 PM CT; Mack Hollins (6.8 points), questionable from 2:12 PM CT.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 18.4 | 17.1 | 9.3–29.3 | 25.2 | in range |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 25.0 | 23.5 | 13.8–38.1 | 19.5 | in range |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | WR | 6.5 | 5.2 | 1.6–14.2 | 20.8 | above range |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 4.7 | 3.5 | 0.0–10.3 | 20.6 | above range |
| James Cook III | BUF | RB | 18.0 | 15.9 | 6.9–31.7 | 15.3 | in range |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 9.0 | 7.5 | 2.5–17.4 | 14.9 | in range |
| Efton Chism III | NE | WR | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.2 | 11.2 | above range |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 7.9 | 6.1 | 1.3–17.3 | 9.7 | in range |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 9.5 | 7.3 | 1.6–21.1 | 1.2 | below range |
| DJ Moore | BUF | WR | 9.3 | 7.3 | 1.6–20.0 | 2.2 | in range |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 7.8 | 6.0 | 1.4–17.1 | 8.7 | in range |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.1–17.6 | 4.2 | in range |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 7.3 | 5.6 | 1.2–16.1 | 6.8 | in range |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | WR | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.0–10.0 | 2.5 | in range |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.0–9.1 | 2.2 | in range |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.0–6.0 | 2.3 | in range |
| Kyle Williams | NE | WR | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.0–5.3 | 0.0 | in range |
| Corey Kiner | NE | RB | 1.7 | 0.8 | -0.2–4.8 | 0.0 | in range |
| Eli Raridon | NE | TE | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.9 | 1.7 | in range |
| Marcus Jones | NE | WR | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.7 | 0.0 | in range |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.7 | 1.2 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Pass yds | 233.0 | 151.0–317.1 | 253 | in range |
| Josh Allen | Pass TD | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
| Josh Allen | Rush yds | 35.0 | 9.0–69.0 | 4 | below |
| Drake Maye | Pass yds | 227.0 | 137.0–331.0 | 269 | in range |
| Drake Maye | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 3 | in range |
| Drake Maye | Rush yds | 21.0 | 1.0–58.0 | 54 | in range |
| James Cook III | Rush yds | 89.0 | 52.0–163.0 | 75 | in range |
| James Cook III | Carries | 18.0 | 12.0–26.0 | 12 | in range |
| James Cook III | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Dalton Kincaid | Rec yds | 44.0 | 11.0–116.0 | 7 | below |
| Dalton Kincaid | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 1 | in range |
| DJ Moore | Rec yds | 37.0 | 8.0–97.0 | 11 | in range |
| DJ Moore | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 1 | in range |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rush yds | 28.0 | 8.0–71.0 | 47 | in range |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Carries | 8.0 | 4.0–13.0 | 13 | in range |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–5.0 | 3 | in range |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Rush yds | 41.0 | 16.0–90.0 | 42 | in range |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Carries | 10.0 | 5.0–16.0 | 14 | in range |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 0 | in range |
| Khalil Shakir | Rec yds | 28.0 | 5.0–72.0 | 82 | above |
Props graded
We logged 34 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (9 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 6 won, 3 lost, for +3.38 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 6-3; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 25 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 8 won, 17 lost, −9.97 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | Catches | Under 3.5 | +124 FanDuel | +2.9% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +1.24 |
| Khalil Shakir | Catches | Under 3.5 | +116 FanDuel | +2.2% | Yes (fair) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Mack Hollins | Catches | Under 3.5 | −106 FanDuel | +1.7% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.94 |
| Romeo Doubs | Catches | Under 3.5 | −148 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dalton Kincaid | Catches | Under 4.5 | −148 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.68 |
| Ty Johnson | Rush yds | Under 4.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.6% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| DeMario Douglas | Catches | Under 2.5 | +112 FanDuel | +0.5% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +1.12 |
| Kyle Williams | Catches | Under 0.5 | +152 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +1.52 |
| Drake Maye | Rush yds | Under 27.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 54 | Loss | −1.00 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Rec yds | Under 7.5 | −113 FanDuel | +39.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Khalil Shakir | Rec yds | Under 38.5 | −113 FanDuel | +27.4% | No (raw sim) | 82 | Loss | −1.00 |
| DeMario Douglas | Catches | Under 2.5 | +105 Bovada | +26.5% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +1.05 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Catches | Under 1.5 | −160 BetMGM | +26.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.62 |
| Khalil Shakir | Catches | Under 3.5 | +110 DraftKings | +24.7% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyle Williams | Rec yds | Under 12.5 | −113 FanDuel | +22.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Keon Coleman | Catches | Over 1.5 | −108 BetOnline | +20.9% | No (raw sim) | 6 | Win | +0.93 |
| DeMario Douglas | Rec yds | Under 28.5 | −112 DraftKings | +20.8% | No (raw sim) | 15 | Win | +0.89 |
| Romeo Doubs | Rec yds | Under 39.5 | −113 FanDuel | +16.6% | No (raw sim) | 58 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dawson Knox | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +13.2% | No (raw sim) | 13 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Keon Coleman | Rec yds | Over 12.5 | −113 FanDuel | +10.7% | No (raw sim) | 116 | Win | +0.89 |
| Josh Allen | Pass yds | Under 246.5 | −112 DraftKings | +10.5% | No (raw sim) | 253 | Loss | −1.00 |
| James Cook III | Catches | Under 1.5 | −122 FanDuel | +9.6% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Hunter Henry | Rec yds | Under 30.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.7% | No (raw sim) | 62 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rec yds | Under 18.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.4% | No (raw sim) | 27 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Mack Hollins | Rec yds | Under 43.5 | −113 FanDuel | +8.0% | No (raw sim) | 53 | Loss | −1.00 |
| James Cook III | Rec yds | Under 7.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.8% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| DJ Moore | Rec yds | Under 49.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.6% | No (raw sim) | 11 | Win | +0.89 |
| Josh Allen | Rush yds | Over 31.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.4% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dawson Knox | Catches | Under 1.5 | −182 BetOnline | +4.5% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rush yds | Under 32.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.3% | No (raw sim) | 47 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Catches | Under 2.5 | −115 BetMGM | +3.8% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Drake Maye | Pass yds | Under 235.5 | −112 DraftKings | +2.5% | No (raw sim) | 269 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Khalil Shakir | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +220 BetOnline | +2.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| James Cook III | Rush yds | Over 84.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.9% | No (raw sim) | 75 | Loss | −1.00 |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: none. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 15 won, 20 lost.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
Get this in your inbox every week
Free weekly email: start/sit, the props our model rates as unders, and every graded result, wins and losses. 21+.
More from Game recaps
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36: our projections vs the box score
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30: our projections vs the box score
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14: our projections vs the box score
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13: our projections vs the box score
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17: our projections vs the box score
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20: our projections vs the box score
Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record