PropGame recaps › Week 4
Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 11 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 11 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (100%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 3.4 FanDuel points.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 17.1 | 15.6 | 8.3–28.0 | 14.9 | in range |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 7.1 | 5.4 | 1.1–16.0 | 13.5 | in range |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | QB | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.4–22.5 | 13.4 | in range |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 13.4 | 11.4 | 4.2–25.5 | 6.1 | in range |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 12.8 | 10.4 | 3.1–26.2 | 6.2 | in range |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | 9.1 | 7.2 | 1.8–19.6 | 10.2 | in range |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB | RB | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.1–9.8 | 9.7 | in range |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | 7.3 | 5.2 | 0.8–16.8 | 7.4 | in range |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.6–12.9 | 2.3 | in range |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 3.9 | 3.0 | 0.0–8.9 | 6.1 | in range |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 4.8 | 3.3 | 0.0–11.2 | 5.7 | in range |
| Kaleb Johnson | GB | RB | 4.6 | 3.3 | 0.4–10.5 | 2.2 | in range |
| Drake Dabney | GB | TE | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.0–11.4 | — | no box-score line |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.0–7.4 | 4.0 | in range |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | WR | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.0–9.1 | 3.5 | in range |
| Tez Johnson | TB | WR | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–4.6 | 3.7 | in range |
| Jonnu Smith | GB | TE | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0–2.8 | 2.4 | in range |
| Skyy Moore | GB | WR | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0–5.4 | 0.5 | in range |
| Bo Melton | GB | WR | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.4 | 0.0 | in range |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | GB | WR | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.1 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | Pass yds | 236.0 | 153.0–321.0 | 197 | in range |
| Jordan Love | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Jordan Love | Rush yds | 7.0 | 0.0–27.0 | 0 | in range |
| Bucky Irving | Rush yds | 55.0 | 26.0–111.0 | 61 | in range |
| Bucky Irving | Carries | 16.0 | 10.0–23.0 | 16 | in range |
| Bucky Irving | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 0 | in range |
| Christian Watson | Rec yds | 63.0 | 19.0–149.0 | 47 | in range |
| Christian Watson | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 3 | in range |
| Jalon Daniels | Pass yds | 195.0 | 103.0–297.0 | 148 | in range |
| Jalon Daniels | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 1 | in range |
| Jalon Daniels | Rush yds | 8.0 | 0.0–30.0 | 55 | above |
| Matthew Golden | Rec yds | 44.0 | 10.0–114.0 | 21 | in range |
| Matthew Golden | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 3 | in range |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Rush yds | 25.0 | 5.0–66.0 | 13 | in range |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Carries | 9.0 | 5.0–15.0 | 7 | in range |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 5 | above |
| Tucker Kraft | Rec yds | 31.0 | 7.0–87.0 | 42 | in range |
| Tucker Kraft | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 6 | in range |
| Emeka Egbuka | Rec yds | 28.0 | 3.0–78.0 | 13 | in range |
| Emeka Egbuka | Catches | 2.0 | 1.0–5.0 | 2 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 41 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (14 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 7 won, 7 lost, for −0.75 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 7-6; overs 0-1.
Not in the official record: 27 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 10 won, 17 lost, −8.75 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels | Rush yds | Under 31.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.4% | Yes (fair) | 55 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Skyy Moore | Catches | Under 1.5 | −114 FanDuel | +4.0% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.88 |
| Bucky Irving | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +165 FanDuel | +3.8% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Matthew Golden | Catches | Under 4.5 | −114 FanDuel | +3.1% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.88 |
| Skyy Moore | Rec yds | Under 17.5 | −113 FanDuel | +2.7% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tucker Kraft | Catches | Under 3.5 | +118 FanDuel | +2.1% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ted Hurst III | Catches | Under 1.5 | +134 FanDuel | +1.2% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Emeka Egbuka | Catches | Under 3.5 | −144 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +0.69 |
| Christian Watson | Catches | Under 4.5 | +116 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +1.16 |
| Bucky Irving | Catches | Under 2.5 | −114 FanDuel | +0.6% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.88 |
| Cade Otton | Catches | Under 2.5 | +120 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tez Johnson | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 17 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jonnu Smith | Catches | Under 0.5 | +164 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kenny Gainwell | Rush yds | Under 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jalon Daniels | Rush yds | Under 33.5 | −112 DraftKings | +58.1% | No (raw sim) | 55 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalon Daniels | Pass yds | Over 170.5 | −112 DraftKings | +56.9% | No (raw sim) | 148 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tucker Kraft | Catches | Under 3.5 | +110 BetMGM | +36.2% | No (raw sim) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +260 BetOnline | +34.8% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Rec yds | Under 5.5 | −113 FanDuel | +26.4% | No (raw sim) | 36 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jonnu Smith | Rec yds | Under 6.5 | −113 FanDuel | +21.0% | No (raw sim) | 19 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Bucky Irving | Catches | Over 2.5 | −118 BetOnline | +19.8% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Matthew Golden | Rec yds | Under 56.5 | −113 FanDuel | +19.3% | No (raw sim) | 21 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tucker Kraft | Rec yds | Under 40.5 | −113 FanDuel | +18.2% | No (raw sim) | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jordan Love | Rush yds | Over 4.5 | −113 FanDuel | +17.6% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Emeka Egbuka | Catches | Over 3.5 | +107 BetRivers | +17.4% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Catches | Under 1.5 | −185 BetMGM | +15.1% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Bucky Irving | Rec yds | Over 12.5 | −112 DraftKings | +13.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cade Otton | Catches | Over 2.5 | −155 BetMGM | +12.8% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Win | +0.65 |
| Kaleb Johnson | Rush yds | Under 31.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.3% | No (raw sim) | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Bucky Irving | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +140 BetOnline | +9.9% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Skyy Moore | Catches | Under 1.5 | −111 BetOnline | +8.6% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.90 |
| Cade Otton | Rec yds | Over 24.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.4% | No (raw sim) | 37 | Win | +0.89 |
| Emeka Egbuka | Rec yds | Over 37.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.5% | No (raw sim) | 13 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kenny Gainwell | Rec yds | Over 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.5% | No (raw sim) | 22 | Win | +0.89 |
| Christian Watson | Catches | Under 4.5 | +100 BetMGM | +4.5% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +1.00 |
| Kenny Gainwell | Catches | Over 2.5 | +138 BetRivers | +3.2% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Catches | Over 2.5 | −130 BetMGM | +2.0% | No (raw sim) | 6 | Win | +0.77 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Catches | Over 2.5 | −130 FanDuel | +2.0% | No (raw sim) | 6 | Win | +0.77 |
| Cade Otton | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +475 BetMGM | +1.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ted Hurst III | Catches | Over 1.5 | −160 DraftKings | +0.9% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.62 |
| Ted Hurst III | Rec yds | Over 21.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | No (raw sim) | 25 | Win | +0.89 |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 3 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 19 won, 20 lost.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record