What is Jaylin Noel's floor and ceiling in Week 4?

Half-PPR: floor 0.0, median 2.3, ceiling 6.0. PPR: 0.0 / 3.0 / 7.1. Standard: 0.0 / 1.7 / 4.7. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations.

Players › WR › HOU

Should I start Jaylin Noel in Week 4?

Week 4, 2026 · HOU vs DAL · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 4:48 AM ET

SIT Limited role

PropSims says sit Jaylin Noel in Week 4 unless Nico Collins is out: as a limited-role WR his median is 2.3 half-PPR points, with a significant role in 14% of our 10,000 simulations.

Scoring	Rank	Call	Median	Ceiling p85
PPR	WR89	Sit	3.0	7.1
Half-PPR	WR88	Sit	2.3	6.0
Standard	WR86	Sit	1.7	4.7

Game environment: HOU market-implied team total 25.8 vs 22.8 for DAL (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 8% target share, 3% carry share, 39% snap rate (nflverse).

Ranked nearby (WR, half-PPR): John Metchie III (WR86), Skyy Moore (WR87), Jordan Watkins (WR89), Jerry Jeudy (WR90).

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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings