PropGame recaps › Week 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 14 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 10 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (71%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 6.0 FanDuel points.
Biggest upside surprise: Dohnte Meyers scored 11.7 FanDuel points against a projected median of 1.9 (90th percentile 6.8).
Below our range: Ja'Marr Chase managed 4.2 points against a 14.7 median (10th percentile 5.4). Our injury feed listed him as questionable after kickoff (first seen 12:53 PM CT).
Status changes our injury feed showed after kickoff: Tee Higgins (21.2 points), questionable from 3:41 PM CT.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 19.1 | 17.6 | 9.3–31.2 | 25.7 | in range |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 12.6 | 10.0 | 2.9–26.2 | 21.2 | in range |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAC | QB | 19.6 | 18.2 | 10.1–31.3 | 13.1 | in range |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 17.5 | 14.7 | 5.4–33.3 | 4.2 | below range |
| Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 15.3 | 13.1 | 5.3–28.3 | 13.6 | in range |
| Brenton Strange | JAC | TE | 6.6 | 4.7 | 0.8–15.0 | 13.0 | in range |
| Dohnte Meyers | CIN | WR | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.0–6.8 | 11.7 | above range |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | TE | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.0–10.8 | 11.5 | above range |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAC | RB | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.5–21.5 | 10.1 | in range |
| Parker Washington | JAC | WR | 10.9 | 8.7 | 2.4–23.0 | 1.5 | below range |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAC | RB | 5.5 | 3.4 | 0.2–13.8 | 9.5 | in range |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAC | WR | 5.5 | 4.2 | 0.7–11.3 | 8.7 | in range |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAC | WR | 8.5 | 6.8 | 1.7–18.0 | 4.8 | in range |
| Josh Cameron | JAC | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.0–6.7 | 5.2 | in range |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.0–10.6 | 0.7 | in range |
| Ameer Abdullah | JAC | RB | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.0–5.6 | 0.0 | in range |
| Nate Boerkircher | JAC | TE | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0–2.9 | 2.0 | in range |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | TE | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.3 | 0.7 | in range |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAC | RB | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.9 | 0.0 | in range |
| Quintin Morris | JAC | TE | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.2 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Pass yds | 239.0 | 140.0–331.0 | 227 | in range |
| Trevor Lawrence | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
| Trevor Lawrence | Rush yds | 15.0 | 0.0–49.0 | 0 | in range |
| Joe Burrow | Pass yds | 228.0 | 137.0–332.0 | 428 | above |
| Joe Burrow | Pass TD | 2.0 | 0.0–5.0 | 1 | in range |
| Joe Burrow | Rush yds | 6.0 | 0.0–25.0 | 6 | in range |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Rec yds | 69.0 | 27.9–143.0 | 27 | below |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Catches | 7.0 | 3.0–11.0 | 3 | in range |
| Chase Brown | Rush yds | 55.0 | 26.0–114.0 | 10 | below |
| Chase Brown | Carries | 15.0 | 9.0–22.0 | 9 | in range |
| Chase Brown | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 11 | above |
| Tee Higgins | Rec yds | 58.0 | 16.0–138.0 | 157 | above |
| Tee Higgins | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 11 | above |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Rush yds | 49.0 | 22.0–102.0 | 73 | in range |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Carries | 13.0 | 7.0–19.1 | 17 | in range |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Parker Washington | Rec yds | 50.0 | 13.0–121.1 | 7 | below |
| Parker Washington | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 1 | in range |
| Jakobi Meyers | Rec yds | 38.0 | 9.0–95.0 | 33 | in range |
| Jakobi Meyers | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 3 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 33 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (6 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 5 won, 1 lost, for +2.94 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 5-1; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 27 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 8 won, 18 lost, 1 void, −9.74 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | Catches | Under 5.5 | −140 FanDuel | +2.0% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.71 |
| Parker Washington | Rec yds | Under 75.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.3% | Yes (fair) | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| Mike Gesicki | Catches | Under 2.5 | −102 FanDuel | +0.7% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Travis Hunter | Rec yds | Under 4.5 | −174 FanDuel | +0.7% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.57 |
| Joe Burrow | Rush yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Win | +0.89 |
| Chase Brown | Rush yds | Under 60.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 10 | Win | +0.89 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Catches | Under 1.5 | +108 FanDuel | +49.4% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +38.1% | No (raw sim) | 18 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Dohnte Meyers | Catches | Under 2.5 | −170 Bovada | +34.0% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Mike Gesicki | Catches | Under 2.5 | −101 BetOnline | +32.6% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Samaje Perine | Rush yds | Under 13.5 | −113 FanDuel | +28.6% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| Dohnte Meyers | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +27.8% | No (raw sim) | 82 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Joe Burrow | Pass yds | Under 267.5 | −113 FanDuel | +25.6% | No (raw sim) | 428 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brenton Strange | Rec yds | Under 37.5 | −113 FanDuel | +25.2% | No (raw sim) | 95 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chase Brown | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +24.5% | No (raw sim) | 71 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Mike Gesicki | Rec yds | Under 27.5 | −113 FanDuel | +21.6% | No (raw sim) | 40 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brenton Strange | Catches | Under 3.5 | −120 BetMGM | +21.3% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Josh Cameron | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +20.0% | No (raw sim) | 42 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Samaje Perine | Catches | Under 1.5 | −123 BetOnline | +18.6% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.81 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Rec yds | Under 81.5 | −113 FanDuel | +17.7% | No (raw sim) | 27 | Win | +0.89 |
| Samaje Perine | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +16.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Josh Cameron | Catches | Under 1.5 | −207 DraftKings | +15.1% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Pass yds | Under 255.5 | −112 DraftKings | +9.5% | No (raw sim) | 227 | Win | +0.89 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Rush yds | Under 55.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.9% | No (raw sim) | 73 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Catches | Under 7.5 | −140 DraftKings | +7.6% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +0.71 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +230 BetMGM | +3.5% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +2.30 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | −105 BetMGM | +2.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tee Higgins | Catches | Under 4.5 | −115 BetMGM | +2.5% | No (raw sim) | 11 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Rec yds | Under 26.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.2% | No (raw sim) | 17 | Win | +0.89 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Rush yds | Over 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Catches | Over 2.5 | +120 BetRivers | +0.8% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Catches | Over 2.5 | +120 FanDuel | +0.8% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Drew Sample | Rec yds | Under 6.5 | −113 FanDuel | +22.1% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 2 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 19 won, 25 lost, 2 void.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record