What is Dawson Knox's floor and ceiling in Week 4?

Half-PPR: floor 0.0, median 2.3, ceiling 5.0. PPR: 0.0 / 3.0 / 5.9. Standard: 0.0 / 1.7 / 4.3. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations.

Players › TE › BUF

Should I start Dawson Knox in Week 4?

Week 4, 2026 · BUF vs NE · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 4:48 AM ET

SIT Limited role

PropSims says sit Dawson Knox in Week 4 unless Dalton Kincaid is out: as a limited-role TE his median is 2.3 half-PPR points, with a significant role in 6% of our 10,000 simulations.

Scoring	Rank	Call	Median	Ceiling p85
PPR	TE42	Sit	3.0	5.9
Half-PPR	TE43	Sit	2.3	5.0
Standard	TE41	Sit	1.7	4.3

Game environment: BUF market-implied team total 28.5 vs 21.5 for NE (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 5% target share, 1% carry share, 71% snap rate (nflverse).

Ranked nearby (TE, half-PPR): Evan Engram (TE41), Eli Raridon (TE42), Ryan Miller (TE44), Chig Okonkwo (TE45).

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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings