PropGame recaps › Week 4
Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Panthers beat the Lions 32-26 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 7:20 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 11 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 9 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (82%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 7.5 FanDuel points.
The game's big outlier: Tetairoa McMillan scored 41.2 FanDuel points against a projected median of 14.6 (90th percentile 32.8).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | 17.2 | 14.6 | 4.9–32.8 | 41.2 | above range |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 16.4 | 14.3 | 5.8–30.1 | 28.4 | in range |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 18.9 | 17.6 | 9.8–29.7 | 24.5 | in range |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 18.9 | 17.2 | 9.0–31.1 | 23.5 | in range |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 23.1 | 21.0 | 8.9–40.0 | 15.7 | in range |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 9.6 | 7.7 | 2.1–19.8 | 18.4 | in range |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 9.3 | 7.2 | 1.7–20.2 | 16.2 | in range |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 15.4 | 12.6 | 4.5–30.1 | 11.5 | in range |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.0–9.9 | 11.5 | above range |
| Darren Waller | CAR | TE | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.1–15.2 | 5.1 | in range |
| John Metchie III | CAR | WR | 4.7 | 3.2 | 0.0–10.8 | 5.2 | in range |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR | WR | 4.6 | 3.5 | 0.0–10.1 | 4.2 | in range |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.0–10.1 | 3.2 | in range |
| AJ Dillon | CAR | RB | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.0–7.8 | 1.2 | in range |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR | TE | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.0–5.7 | 1.3 | in range |
| Sione Vaki | DET | RB | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.0–5.2 | 2.2 | in range |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0–2.7 | 1.3 | in range |
| Anthony Tyus III | CAR | RB | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0–2.5 | 0.0 | in range |
| David Moore | CAR | WR | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.6 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring computed from the ESPN box score with FanDuel's rules: half-PPR, 2-point conversions, and +3 bonuses for 100+ rushing, 100+ receiving and 300+ passing yards. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Rush yds | 83.0 | 46.0–153.0 | 46 | in range |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Carries | 19.0 | 12.0–27.0 | 15 | in range |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 4 | in range |
| Bryce Young | Pass yds | 243.0 | 158.0–332.0 | 329 | in range |
| Bryce Young | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Bryce Young | Rush yds | 8.0 | 0.0–29.0 | 3 | in range |
| Jared Goff | Pass yds | 231.0 | 139.0–336.0 | 412 | above |
| Jared Goff | Pass TD | 2.0 | 0.0–5.0 | 1 | in range |
| Jared Goff | Rush yds | 2.0 | -1.0–20.0 | 0 | in range |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Rec yds | 79.0 | 29.0–173.0 | 192 | above |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Catches | 6.0 | 3.0–10.0 | 14 | above |
| Chuba Hubbard | Rush yds | 59.0 | 28.0–118.0 | 122 | above |
| Chuba Hubbard | Carries | 16.0 | 10.0–24.0 | 20 | in range |
| Chuba Hubbard | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 1 | in range |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Rec yds | 62.0 | 23.0–134.0 | 75 | in range |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Catches | 6.0 | 3.0–10.0 | 8 | in range |
| Sam LaPorta | Rec yds | 40.0 | 13.0–98.0 | 84 | in range |
| Sam LaPorta | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 8 | in range |
| Jameson Williams | Rec yds | 43.0 | 9.0–113.0 | 102 | in range |
| Jameson Williams | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 6 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 34 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (14 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 8 won, 6 lost, for +1.54 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 8-5; overs 0-1.
Not in the official record: 20 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 5 won, 14 lost, 1 void, −9.41 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brycen Tremayne | Catches | Under 2.5 | −110 FanDuel | +5.8% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +0.91 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Catches | Under 4.5 | +128 FanDuel | +2.5% | Yes (fair) | 14 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Catches | Under 6.5 | +112 FanDuel | +2.1% | Yes (fair) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brycen Tremayne | Rec yds | Under 33.5 | −113 FanDuel | +2.0% | Yes (fair) | 32 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Catches | Under 4.5 | −102 FanDuel | +1.9% | Yes (fair) | 4 | Win | +0.98 |
| Darren Waller | Catches | Under 3.5 | −108 FanDuel | +1.3% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.93 |
| Sione Vaki | Rush yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.2% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Bryce Young | Rush yds | Under 12.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| John Metchie III | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +850 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Rush yds | Under 94.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.7% | Yes (fair) | 46 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jameson Williams | Catches | Under 3.5 | −130 FanDuel | +0.7% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Rush yds | Under 65.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 122 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Sam LaPorta | Catches | Under 4.5 | −140 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Catches | Under 2.5 | +118 FanDuel | +0.0% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +1.18 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Catches | Under 2.5 | +105 BetMGM | +31.8% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +1.05 |
| Anthony Tyus III | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +2000 Fanatics | +25.4% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jameson Williams | Rec yds | Under 50.5 | −113 FanDuel | +22.9% | No (raw sim) | 102 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jared Goff | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +1000 BetOnline | +22.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Sam LaPorta | Rec yds | Under 47.5 | −113 FanDuel | +22.0% | No (raw sim) | 84 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Rec yds | Under 18.5 | −113 FanDuel | +21.1% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jared Goff | Pass yds | Under 257.5 | −112 DraftKings | +18.7% | No (raw sim) | 412 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Catches | Under 4.5 | +115 BetMGM | +17.6% | No (raw sim) | 14 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Rec yds | Under 17.5 | −113 FanDuel | +17.1% | No (raw sim) | 95 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brock Wright | Rec yds | Under 5.5 | −115 DraftKings | +17.0% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Rec yds | Under 70.5 | −113 FanDuel | +16.4% | No (raw sim) | 192 | Loss | −1.00 |
| John Metchie III | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +475 BetMGM | +14.6% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Rec yds | Under 75.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.9% | No (raw sim) | 75 | Win | +0.89 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Rush yds | Under 66.5 | −112 DraftKings | +6.2% | No (raw sim) | 122 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Darren Waller | Rec yds | Under 30.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.3% | No (raw sim) | 36 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Catches | Under 7.5 | −142 DraftKings | +4.9% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| AJ Dillon | Rush yds | Under 12.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.2% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jared Goff | Rush yds | Over 1.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Rec yds | Under 35.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.8% | No (raw sim) | 31 | Win | +0.89 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +3400 BetOnline | +402.2% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 5 won, 2 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 9 won, 20 lost, 1 pushed.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record