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Should I start Mitchell Evans in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · CAR vs DET · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET ·
PropSims says sit Mitchell Evans in Week 4 unless Darren Waller is out: as a limited-role TE his median is 2.1 half-PPR points, with a significant role in 3% of our 10,000 simulations.
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | TE47 | Sit | 2.7 | 0.0 | 5.3 |
| Half-PPR | TE46 | Sit | 2.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 |
| Standard | TE44 | Sit | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 |
Game environment: CAR market-implied team total 23.8 vs 27.2 for DET (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 5% target share, 0% carry share, 42% snap rate (nflverse).
Ranked nearby (TE, half-PPR): Ryan Miller (TE44), Chig Okonkwo (TE45), Johnny Mundt (TE47), Noah Gray (TE48).
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings