PropGame recaps › Week 4
New York Jets 12, Chicago Bears 23: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: Chicago Bears 23, New York Jets 12 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 12 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 8 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (67%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 7.1 FanDuel points.
Biggest upside surprise: Kyle Monangai scored 27.5 FanDuel points against a projected median of 5.5 (90th percentile 16.0).
Below our range: Kenyon Sadiq managed 0.0 points against a 6.5 median (10th percentile 1.7).
Status changes our injury feed showed after kickoff: Kyle Monangai (27.5 points), questionable from 3:30 PM CT.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | RB | 7.4 | 5.5 | 1.3–16.0 | 27.5 | above range |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | QB | 16.2 | 14.8 | 7.7–27.0 | 8.8 | in range |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | QB | 15.0 | 13.3 | 6.0–26.6 | 9.8 | in range |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 14.4 | 12.5 | 4.9–26.8 | 6.4 | in range |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 14.4 | 12.0 | 4.9–27.2 | 4.2 | below range |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | WR | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.4–10.2 | 14.3 | above range |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 6.1 | 4.6 | 0.0–13.7 | 12.4 | in range |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | 7.8 | 6.0 | 1.2–16.9 | 9.4 | in range |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 9.1 | 7.5 | 2.2–18.3 | 7.7 | in range |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 5.5 | 3.7 | 0.6–12.7 | 8.7 | in range |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ | TE | 8.3 | 6.5 | 1.7–17.8 | 0.0 | below range |
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | WR | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.6–13.1 | 1.6 | in range |
| Kene Nwangwu | NYJ | RB | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.3–10.8 | 0.0 | below range |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.0–6.5 | — | no box-score line |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ | RB | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.0–7.9 | 0.0 | in range |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.0–4.0 | 2.3 | in range |
| Jelani Woods | NYJ | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 1.6 | in range |
| Sam Roush | CHI | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.1 | 1.3 | in range |
| Sterling Shepard | NYJ | WR | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.3 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | Pass yds | 237.0 | 139.0–328.0 | 119 | below |
| Geno Smith | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 1 | in range |
| Geno Smith | Rush yds | 8.0 | 0.0–30.0 | 0 | in range |
| Tyson Bagent | Pass yds | 205.0 | 108.0–311.0 | 268 | in range |
| Tyson Bagent | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 0 | in range |
| Tyson Bagent | Rush yds | 2.0 | -1.0–25.0 | 1 | in range |
| D'Andre Swift | Rush yds | 64.0 | 32.0–123.0 | 58 | in range |
| D'Andre Swift | Carries | 15.0 | 9.0–22.0 | 15 | in range |
| D'Andre Swift | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Garrett Wilson | Rec yds | 71.0 | 28.0–147.0 | 27 | below |
| Garrett Wilson | Catches | 7.0 | 3.0–11.0 | 3 | in range |
| Braelon Allen | Rush yds | 30.0 | 8.0–74.0 | 59 | in range |
| Braelon Allen | Carries | 10.0 | 5.0–16.0 | 14 | in range |
| Braelon Allen | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Rec yds | 38.0 | 11.0–96.0 | 0 | below |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 0 | below |
| Luther Burden III | Rec yds | 31.0 | 6.0–84.0 | 63 | in range |
| Luther Burden III | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 4 | in range |
| Kyle Monangai | Rush yds | 31.0 | 11.0–76.0 | 146 | above |
| Kyle Monangai | Carries | 7.0 | 4.0–12.0 | 30 | above |
Props graded
We logged 39 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (13 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 7 won, 6 lost, for −0.30 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 7-5; overs 0-1.
Not in the official record: 26 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 8 won, 15 lost, 3 void, −7.96 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kene Nwangwu | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +2700 FanDuel | +7.5% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Davis | Catches | Under 1.5 | −130 FanDuel | +5.5% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.77 |
| Tyson Bagent | Rush yds | Under 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.4% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.89 |
| Luther Burden III | Catches | Under 4.5 | −140 FanDuel | +2.7% | Yes (fair) | 4 | Win | +0.71 |
| Braelon Allen | Catches | Under 1.5 | +112 FanDuel | +2.5% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Davis | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.8% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Braelon Allen | Rush yds | Under 56.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.7% | Yes (fair) | 59 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Colston Loveland | Catches | Under 3.5 | −136 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Luther Burden III | Rec yds | Under 46.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.4% | Yes (fair) | 63 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyle Monangai | Catches | Under 0.5 | +164 FanDuel | +0.4% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Geno Smith | Rush yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Catches | Under 4.5 | −148 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.68 |
| Isaiah Davis | Rush yds | Under 21.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.0% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kene Nwangwu | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +1600 BetRivers | +249.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Braelon Allen | Catches | Under 1.5 | +110 BetMGM | +56.9% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Braelon Allen | Rec yds | Under 11.5 | −113 FanDuel | +55.3% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kalif Raymond | Catches | Over 3.5 | +110 BetRivers | +54.6% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Colston Loveland | Rec yds | Under 33.5 | −113 FanDuel | +39.7% | No (raw sim) | 57 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kalif Raymond | Rec yds | Over 31.5 | −113 FanDuel | +36.9% | No (raw sim) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyson Bagent | Rush yds | Under 14.5 | −112 DraftKings | +35.0% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.89 |
| Garrett Wilson | Catches | Over 6.5 | −103 BetRivers | +29.2% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyson Bagent | Pass yds | Over 199.5 | −113 FanDuel | +27.7% | No (raw sim) | 268 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kyle Monangai | Rec yds | Under 5.5 | −113 FanDuel | +26.4% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kyle Monangai | Catches | Under 0.5 | +155 Bovada | +20.9% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Williams | Rec yds | Under 22.5 | −113 FanDuel | +19.0% | No (raw sim) | 73 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kalif Raymond | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +320 BetMGM | +16.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Williams | Catches | Under 2.5 | −105 BetMGM | +15.4% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.95 |
| Cole Kmet | Catches | Under 1.5 | −174 FanDuel | +15.1% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyle Monangai | Rush yds | Under 39.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.8% | No (raw sim) | 146 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cole Kmet | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.0% | No (raw sim) | 13 | Loss | −1.00 |
| D'Andre Swift | Rec yds | Under 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +11.6% | No (raw sim) | 16 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Isaiah Davis | Catches | Under 1.5 | −120 BetMGM | +11.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.83 |
| Luther Burden III | Catches | Under 4.5 | −121 DraftKings | +9.1% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Win | +0.83 |
| Geno Smith | Pass yds | Over 227.5 | −112 DraftKings | +4.7% | No (raw sim) | 119 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Garrett Wilson | Rec yds | Over 75.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.5% | No (raw sim) | 27 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | Rec yds | Under 41.5 | −113 FanDuel | +2.7% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | Rec yds | Under 16.5 | −113 FanDuel | +19.4% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Jeremy Ruckert | Catches | Under 2.5 | −130 FanDuel | +18.6% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Jeremy Ruckert | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +600 BetMGM | +7.5% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 3 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 17 won, 19 lost, 1 pushed, 2 void.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record