PropGame recaps › Week 4
Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Ravens beat the Titans 24-18 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 9 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 8 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (89%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 4.0 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Carnell Tate scored 17.0 FanDuel points against a projected median of 5.7 (90th percentile 13.2).
Status changes our injury feed showed after kickoff: Lamar Jackson (18.9 points), questionable from 2:02 PM CT.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 16.2 | 13.1 | 4.4–32.0 | 21.8 | in range |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 21.7 | 20.3 | 11.6–33.9 | 18.9 | in range |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 20.0 | 17.9 | 7.6–35.1 | 14.9 | in range |
| Carnell Tate | TEN | WR | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.2–13.2 | 17.0 | above range |
| Cam Ward | TEN | QB | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.7–22.3 | 14.6 | in range |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | RB | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4–20.3 | 12.0 | in range |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 7.0 | 5.3 | 1.1–15.0 | 11.2 | in range |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR | 6.0 | 4.9 | 1.7–11.9 | 9.5 | in range |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 7.3 | 5.4 | 0.8–16.5 | 5.6 | in range |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | WR | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.0–9.3 | 2.7 | in range |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | RB | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.1–8.5 | 1.2 | in range |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | TE | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.0–6.5 | 1.0 | in range |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.0–7.1 | 3.5 | in range |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–5.4 | 2.4 | in range |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | WR | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.7 | 2.0 | in range |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | WR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–4.4 | 1.8 | in range |
| LaJohntay Wester | BAL | WR | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.6 | 0.0 | in range |
| Daniel Bellinger | TEN | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.1 | 0.7 | in range |
| Durham Smythe | BAL | TE | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.8 | 0.0 | in range |
| Josh Cuevas | BAL | TE | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.4 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring (half-PPR) computed from the ESPN box score; 2-point conversions are not included. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | Pass yds | 245.0 | 144.0–340.0 | 222 | in range |
| Lamar Jackson | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Lamar Jackson | Rush yds | 28.0 | 7.0–56.0 | 20 | in range |
| Derrick Henry | Rush yds | 93.0 | 56.0–164.0 | 73 | in range |
| Derrick Henry | Carries | 21.0 | 14.0–29.0 | 23 | in range |
| Derrick Henry | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Zay Flowers | Rec yds | 77.0 | 27.0–174.0 | 118 | in range |
| Zay Flowers | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–9.0 | 8 | in range |
| Cam Ward | Pass yds | 191.0 | 101.0–291.0 | 222 | in range |
| Cam Ward | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 1 | in range |
| Cam Ward | Rush yds | 7.0 | 0.0–26.0 | 27 | above |
| Tony Pollard | Rush yds | 53.0 | 25.0–110.0 | 48 | in range |
| Tony Pollard | Carries | 14.0 | 8.0–20.0 | 16 | in range |
| Tony Pollard | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Rashod Bateman | Rec yds | 26.0 | 2.0–77.0 | 46 | in range |
| Rashod Bateman | Catches | 2.0 | 1.0–5.0 | 2 | in range |
| Mark Andrews | Rec yds | 26.0 | 7.0–69.0 | 27 | in range |
| Mark Andrews | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 5 | in range |
| Carnell Tate | Rec yds | 31.0 | 7.0–80.0 | 145 | above |
| Carnell Tate | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 9 | above |
Props graded
We logged 37 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (12 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 6 won, 6 lost, for −0.04 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 6-6; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 25 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 16 won, 7 lost, 2 void, +7.77 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Catches | Under 3.5 | +128 FanDuel | +4.5% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +1.28 |
| Justice Hill | Catches | Under 1.5 | −108 FanDuel | +2.0% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Justice Hill | Rush yds | Under 16.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.6% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tony Pollard | Catches | Under 1.5 | +118 FanDuel | +0.8% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cam Ward | Rush yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.6% | Yes (fair) | 27 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Gunnar Helm | Catches | Under 2.5 | +112 FanDuel | +0.5% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +1.12 |
| Mark Andrews | Catches | Under 3.5 | +124 FanDuel | +0.4% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Elic Ayomanor | Catches | Under 1.5 | +116 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +1.16 |
| Carnell Tate | Catches | Under 4.5 | −136 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 9 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyjae Spears | Catches | Under 2.5 | −160 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.62 |
| Lamar Jackson | Rush yds | Under 31.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.0% | Yes (fair) | 20 | Win | +0.89 |
| Justice Hill | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.0% | Yes (fair) | 22 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Justice Hill | Rush yds | Under 17.5 | −112 DraftKings | +52.4% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| Justice Hill | Catches | Under 1.5 | −108 BetOnline | +50.2% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Derrick Henry | Rec yds | Under 7.5 | −113 FanDuel | +27.2% | No (raw sim) | 6 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tony Pollard | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +25.3% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tony Pollard | Catches | Under 1.5 | +116 BetOnline | +25.3% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cam Ward | Pass yds | Over 187.5 | −113 FanDuel | +24.7% | No (raw sim) | 222 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tyjae Spears | Rush yds | Under 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +24.6% | No (raw sim) | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| Mark Andrews | Rec yds | Under 37.5 | −113 FanDuel | +23.3% | No (raw sim) | 27 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tyjae Spears | Rec yds | Under 12.5 | −113 FanDuel | +22.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Gunnar Helm | Catches | Under 2.5 | +100 BetOnline | +21.4% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +1.00 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Catches | Under 3.5 | +120 BetMGM | +17.0% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +1.20 |
| Gunnar Helm | Rec yds | Under 18.5 | −113 FanDuel | +15.2% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Win | +0.89 |
| Mark Andrews | Catches | Under 3.5 | +110 BetOnline | +14.5% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Rec yds | Under 37.5 | −113 FanDuel | +11.4% | No (raw sim) | 19 | Win | +0.89 |
| Elic Ayomanor | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +550 BetRivers | +11.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rashod Bateman | Rec yds | Under 26.5 | −113 FanDuel | +10.5% | No (raw sim) | 46 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Lamar Jackson | Pass yds | Over 213.5 | −113 FanDuel | +10.4% | No (raw sim) | 222 | Win | +0.89 |
| Calvin Ridley | Rec yds | Over 5.5 | −113 FanDuel | +6.3% | No (raw sim) | 13 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tony Pollard | Rush yds | Under 50.5 | −112 DraftKings | +4.6% | No (raw sim) | 48 | Win | +0.89 |
| Carnell Tate | Rec yds | Under 43.5 | −113 FanDuel | +4.4% | No (raw sim) | 145 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Elic Ayomanor | Catches | Under 1.5 | +105 BetMGM | +2.7% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +1.05 |
| Derrick Henry | Rush yds | Under 97.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.8% | No (raw sim) | 73 | Win | +0.89 |
| Elic Ayomanor | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.5% | No (raw sim) | 22 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Michael Carter | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +2900 BetOnline | +139.4% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Chris Moore | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.9% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 1 won, 3 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 27 won, 8 lost, 1 void.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
Get this in your inbox every week
Free weekly email: start/sit, the props our model rates as unders, and every graded result, wins and losses. 21+.
More from Game recaps
- Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36: our projections vs the box score
- Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30: our projections vs the box score
- Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14: our projections vs the box score
- Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13: our projections vs the box score
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17: our projections vs the box score
- Los Angeles Rams 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20: our projections vs the box score
Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record