PropGame recaps › Week 4
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-27 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 3:25 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Projection note: the projections graded here came from an earlier simulation (last refreshed 10:34 a.m. CT), not a final pre-kickoff refresh. From 2:12 p.m. CT until kickoff, our live updater queued re-simulations for this game, but every one was held back by a failing automated check on other games (a bug in the updater, since fixed). Status changes on these two teams that the published projections and prop prices did not reflect: Garrett Nussmeier (KC) active to out; Jared Wiley (KC) active to out; Aidan O'Connell (LV) active to out. Results are graded against the projections as published.
Among the 11 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 8 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (73%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 7.6 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Tyquan Thornton scored 28.6 FanDuel points against a projected median of 2.7 (90th percentile 9.1).
Status changes our injury feed showed after kickoff: Tyquan Thornton (28.6 points), out from 6:31 PM CT.
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | 19.7 | 17.4 | 7.3–34.9 | 33.4 | in range |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.0–9.1 | 28.6 | above range |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | QB | 14.7 | 12.8 | 6.2–26.0 | 26.6 | above range |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 19.5 | 18.1 | 9.7–31.7 | 17.0 | in range |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 11.1 | 8.9 | 2.9–23.0 | 17.6 | in range |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | 16.5 | 14.6 | 5.9–29.8 | 15.6 | in range |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 14.3 | 11.6 | 3.9–28.0 | — | no box-score line |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.1–13.0 | 12.2 | in range |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 10.5 | 8.4 | 2.4–22.3 | 2.5 | in range |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 6.9 | 5.6 | 1.9–13.8 | 9.0 | in range |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 8.2 | 6.5 | 1.6–17.7 | 6.4 | in range |
| Cody White | LV | WR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–5.9 | 6.6 | above range |
| Jalen Nailor | LV | WR | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.0–7.7 | — | no box-score line |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | RB | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0–7.7 | 1.5 | in range |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.0–4.9 | 2.7 | in range |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV | RB | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.0–6.5 | 2.2 | in range |
| Jalen Royals | KC | WR | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.9 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring computed from the ESPN box score with FanDuel's rules: half-PPR, 2-point conversions, and +3 bonuses for 100+ rushing, 100+ receiving and 300+ passing yards. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | Rush yds | 75.0 | 41.0–142.0 | 177 | above |
| Kenneth Walker III | Carries | 17.0 | 10.0–24.0 | 22 | in range |
| Kenneth Walker III | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 1 | in range |
| Patrick Mahomes | Pass yds | 237.0 | 142.0–344.0 | 225 | in range |
| Patrick Mahomes | Pass TD | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Patrick Mahomes | Rush yds | 16.0 | 1.0–43.0 | 0 | below |
| Ashton Jeanty | Rush yds | 53.0 | 24.0–110.0 | 58 | in range |
| Ashton Jeanty | Carries | 17.0 | 11.0–25.0 | 15 | in range |
| Ashton Jeanty | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 6 | in range |
| Kirk Cousins | Pass yds | 213.0 | 134.0–309.0 | 365 | above |
| Kirk Cousins | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Kirk Cousins | Rush yds | 1.0 | -1.0–16.0 | 0 | in range |
| Brock Bowers | Rec yds | 50.0 | 18.0–116.1 | 86 | in range |
| Brock Bowers | Catches | 5.0 | 2.0–9.0 | 6 | in range |
| Travis Kelce | Rec yds | 46.0 | 16.0–114.0 | 15 | below |
| Travis Kelce | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 2 | in range |
| Tre Tucker | Rec yds | 41.0 | 8.0–105.0 | 44 | in range |
| Tre Tucker | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 4 | in range |
| Xavier Worthy | Rec yds | 27.0 | 5.0–71.0 | 70 | in range |
| Xavier Worthy | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 4 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 29 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (8 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 4 won, 4 lost, for −0.19 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 4-4; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 21 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 5 won, 16 lost, −11.55 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody White | Catches | Under 1.5 | −200 FanDuel | +5.1% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Brock Bowers | Catches | Under 6.5 | −108 FanDuel | +4.1% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Win | +0.93 |
| Cody White | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.1% | Yes (fair) | 36 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalen Nailor | Catches | Under 1.5 | +128 FanDuel | +1.7% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +1.28 |
| Brock Bowers | Rec yds | Under 72.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 86 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kenneth Walker III | Rush yds | Under 86.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.8% | Yes (fair) | 177 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Emmett Johnson | Rush yds | Under 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Travis Kelce | Catches | Under 4.5 | −140 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Win | +0.71 |
| Emmett Johnson | Rush yds | Under 15.5 | −112 DraftKings | +39.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Emmett Johnson | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −112 DraftKings | +33.8% | No (raw sim) | 10 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Xavier Worthy | Rec yds | Under 33.5 | −113 FanDuel | +24.5% | No (raw sim) | 70 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | Rush yds | Under 16.5 | −113 FanDuel | +21.1% | No (raw sim) | 18 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyquan Thornton | Rec yds | Under 22.5 | −113 FanDuel | +15.7% | No (raw sim) | 111 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalen Nailor | Catches | Under 1.5 | +110 BetOnline | +14.3% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +1.10 |
| Tyquan Thornton | Catches | Under 1.5 | −120 Bovada | +14.1% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Cody White | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +550 FanDuel | +12.1% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jalen Nailor | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Xavier Worthy | Catches | Under 3.5 | −165 BetMGM | +10.5% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rashee Rice | Catches | Over 4.5 | −130 FanDuel | +8.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kenneth Walker III | Catches | Over 2.5 | −154 FanDuel | +6.0% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Travis Kelce | Rec yds | Under 47.5 | −113 FanDuel | +5.9% | No (raw sim) | 15 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kenneth Walker III | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | −145 Fanatics | +4.0% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.69 |
| Michael Mayer | Rec yds | Under 21.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.4% | No (raw sim) | 82 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tre Tucker | Rec yds | Under 38.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.9% | No (raw sim) | 44 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kirk Cousins | Rush yds | Over 0.5 | −103 DraftKings | +1.4% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ashton Jeanty | Rush yds | Under 57.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.3% | No (raw sim) | 58 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ashton Jeanty | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −112 DraftKings | +1.0% | No (raw sim) | 68 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rashee Rice | Rec yds | Over 55.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.7% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Noah Gray | Rec yds | Under 8.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.6% | No (raw sim) | 17 | Loss | −1.00 |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 2 won, 3 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 8 won, 17 lost.
Correction (Oct 4, 2026, 7:23 PM CT): actual FanDuel points in this recap now include FanDuel's +3 yardage bonuses and 2-point conversions, and count negative yardage (e.g. -6 rushing yards) instead of zero; the first version did not, which changed 6 player totals. Projections and prop results did not change.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record