PropPlayers › QB › KC
Should I start Patrick Mahomes in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · KC vs LV · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Patrick Mahomes QB3 in half-PPR for Week 4 (KC vs LV): start in a 12-team league. Median 17.8 points, floor 9.6 (p10), ceiling 27.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: QB3 (median 17.8). Standard: QB3 (median 17.8).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | QB3 | Start | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
| Half-PPR | QB3 | Start | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
| Standard | QB3 | Start | 17.8 | 9.6 | 27.6 |
Game environment: KC market-implied team total 26.2 vs 21.8 for LV (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 0% target share, 7% carry share, 100% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Patrick Mahomes vs similar QBs
- Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen? Patrick Mahomes outscores Josh Allen in 37% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Patrick Mahomes or Tyler Shough? Patrick Mahomes outscores Tyler Shough in 42% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson? Patrick Mahomes outscores Lamar Jackson in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Patrick Mahomes or Bryce Young? Patrick Mahomes outscores Bryce Young in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Patrick Mahomes or Drake Maye? Patrick Mahomes outscores Drake Maye in 52% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (QB, half-PPR): Josh Allen (QB1), Tyler Shough (QB2), Lamar Jackson (QB4), Bryce Young (QB5).
Compare Patrick Mahomes with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings