PropGame recaps › Week 4
Miami Dolphins 10, Minnesota Vikings 15: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Final: Minnesota Vikings 15, Miami Dolphins 10 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 3:05 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Projection note: the projections graded here came from an earlier simulation (last refreshed 10:34 a.m. CT), not a final pre-kickoff refresh. From 1:40 p.m. CT until kickoff, our live updater queued re-simulations for this game, but every one was held back by a failing automated check on other games (a bug in the updater, since fixed). Status changes on these two teams that the published projections and prop prices did not reflect: Brady Cook (MIA) active to out; Justin Joly (MIA) active to out; Max Brosmer (MIN) active to out. Results are graded against the projections as published.
Among the 7 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 4 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (57%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 7.6 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Ollie Gordon II scored 20.0 FanDuel points against a projected median of 5.0 (90th percentile 13.7).
Where we were too high: Malik Willis managed 2.5 points against a 14.3 median (10th percentile 8.1).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 8.4 | 6.6 | 1.8–17.8 | 21.4 | above range |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA | RB | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.1–13.7 | 20.0 | above range |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | RB | 19.0 | 16.7 | 6.7–34.3 | 14.8 | in range |
| Malik Willis | MIA | QB | 15.4 | 14.3 | 8.1–24.5 | 2.5 | below range |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | QB | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.9–26.1 | 11.5 | in range |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 10.5 | 8.3 | 2.0–22.7 | 7.1 | in range |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.0–12.6 | 9.5 | in range |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.0–10.9 | — | no box-score line |
| Jauan Jennings | MIN | WR | 4.5 | 3.3 | 0.0–10.1 | 1.3 | in range |
| Chris Bell | MIA | WR | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.0–9.2 | 0.0 | in range |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RB | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.0–8.0 | 0.7 | in range |
| Tai Felton | MIN | WR | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.0–7.3 | 1.9 | in range |
| Will Kacmarek | MIA | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.8 | 2.0 | above range |
| Myles Price | MIN | WR | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.1 | 1.8 | in range |
| DeeJay Dallas | MIN | RB | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.0–3.4 | 1.5 | in range |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA | WR | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0–4.0 | 0.8 | in range |
| Demond Claiborne | MIN | RB | 1.3 | 0.6 | -0.1–3.4 | 1.2 | in range |
| Ryan Miller | MIA | TE | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.1 | 0.0 | in range |
| Gavin Bartholomew | MIN | TE | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.1 | 0.9 | in range |
| Jalen Tolbert | MIA | WR | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.4 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring computed from the ESPN box score with FanDuel's rules: half-PPR, 2-point conversions, and +3 bonuses for 100+ rushing, 100+ receiving and 300+ passing yards. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Rush yds | 75.0 | 40.0–140.0 | 94 | in range |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Carries | 21.0 | 14.0–29.0 | 20 | in range |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–5.0 | 4 | in range |
| Malik Willis | Pass yds | 205.0 | 129.0–298.0 | 85 | below |
| Malik Willis | Pass TD | 0.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 0 | in range |
| Malik Willis | Rush yds | 30.0 | 7.0–59.0 | 11 | in range |
| Kyler Murray | Pass yds | 181.0 | 96.0–276.0 | 247 | in range |
| Kyler Murray | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 0 | in range |
| Kyler Murray | Rush yds | 13.0 | 0.0–40.0 | 16 | in range |
| Jordan Addison | Rec yds | 45.0 | 11.0–111.0 | 52 | in range |
| Jordan Addison | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 4 | in range |
| T.J. Hockenson | Rec yds | 32.0 | 10.0–79.0 | 119 | above |
| T.J. Hockenson | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 13 | above |
| Malik Washington | Rec yds | 26.0 | 4.9–69.0 | 67 | in range |
| Malik Washington | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 5 | in range |
| Ollie Gordon II | Rush yds | 25.0 | 4.0–65.0 | 100 | above |
| Ollie Gordon II | Carries | 10.0 | 6.0–16.0 | 9 | in range |
| Ollie Gordon II | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Jauan Jennings | Rec yds | 17.0 | 0.0–57.0 | 8 | in range |
| Jauan Jennings | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 36 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (13 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 11 won, 1 lost, 1 void (did not play), for +9.59 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 11-1; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 23 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 13 won, 9 lost, 1 void, +2.29 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wright | Catches | Under 0.5 | +182 FanDuel | +4.1% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +1.82 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Catches | Under 1.5 | −114 FanDuel | +4.0% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.88 |
| Malik Washington | Catches | Under 4.5 | −136 FanDuel | +3.8% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jauan Jennings | Catches | Under 2.5 | −132 FanDuel | +3.7% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.76 |
| Chris Bell | Catches | Under 2.5 | −114 FanDuel | +1.7% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +0.88 |
| Malik Washington | Rush yds | Under 5.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.5% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jaylen Wright | Rec yds | Under 5.5 | +100 FanDuel | +1.5% | Yes (fair) | 0 | Win | +1.00 |
| Kyler Murray | Rush yds | Under 21.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 16 | Win | +0.89 |
| Tai Felton | Catches | Under 1.5 | −102 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.98 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Rec yds | Under 14.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jaylen Wright | Rush yds | Under 27.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | 7 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jordan Addison | Catches | Under 4.5 | −136 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 4 | Win | +0.73 |
| Greg Dulcich | Catches | Under 2.5 | +128 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | — | Void | — |
| Tai Felton | Catches | Under 1.5 | −105 DraftKings | +69.6% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.95 |
| Jaylen Wright | Rec yds | Under 6.5 | −115 BetMGM | +66.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.87 |
| Malik Willis | Pass yds | Over 169.5 | −113 FanDuel | +58.0% | No (raw sim) | 85 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tai Felton | Rec yds | Under 15.5 | −113 FanDuel | +54.7% | No (raw sim) | 14 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jauan Jennings | Rec yds | Under 26.5 | −113 FanDuel | +50.7% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Win | +0.89 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | Rec yds | Under 15.5 | −112 DraftKings | +46.8% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +0.89 |
| Ollie Gordon II | Rec yds | Under 5.5 | −113 FanDuel | +45.5% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jaylen Wright | Catches | Under 1.5 | −210 BetMGM | +42.6% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.48 |
| Ollie Gordon II | Catches | Under 1.5 | −185 Bovada | +33.1% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chris Bell | Rec yds | Under 34.5 | −113 FanDuel | +21.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
| Ryan Miller | Catches | Over 0.5 | −140 FanDuel | +20.8% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Rush yds | Over 65.5 | −113 FanDuel | +12.7% | No (raw sim) | 94 | Win | +0.89 |
| Ryan Miller | Rec yds | Over 4.5 | −115 Bovada | +11.9% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyler Murray | Pass yds | Over 203.5 | −112 DraftKings | +6.9% | No (raw sim) | 247 | Win | +0.89 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | −140 BetMGM | +6.9% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Catches | Under 3.5 | −154 FanDuel | +5.6% | No (raw sim) | 4 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | −150 FanDuel | +4.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | Rec yds | Under 19.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.2% | No (raw sim) | 34 | Loss | −1.00 |
| T.J. Hockenson | Rec yds | Under 38.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.2% | No (raw sim) | 119 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jordan Addison | Rec yds | Under 62.5 | −112 DraftKings | +1.1% | No (raw sim) | 52 | Win | +0.89 |
| Malik Washington | Rec yds | Over 38.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.7% | No (raw sim) | 67 | Win | +0.89 |
| T.J. Hockenson | Catches | Over 4.5 | +100 BetRivers | +0.6% | No (raw sim) | 13 | Win | +1.00 |
| Greg Dulcich | Catches | Over 2.5 | −160 BetMGM | +5.0% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 8 won, 0 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 20 won, 8 lost.
Correction (Oct 4, 2026, 7:23 PM CT): actual FanDuel points in this recap now include FanDuel's +3 yardage bonuses and 2-point conversions, and count negative yardage (e.g. -6 rushing yards) instead of zero; the first version did not, which changed 3 player totals. Projections and prop results did not change.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record