PropGame recaps › Week 4
Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Falcons beat the Saints 45-24 (kickoff Oct 5, 2026, 7:15 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Among the 12 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 10 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (83%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 5.9 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Brian Robinson scored 25.2 FanDuel points against a projected median of 3.7 (90th percentile 11.6).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 23.6 | 21.7 | 9.9–39.7 | 30.2 | in range |
| Brian Robinson | ATL | RB | 5.2 | 3.7 | 0.7–11.6 | 25.2 | above range |
| Tyler Shough | NO | QB | 21.2 | 19.6 | 10.7–33.5 | 15.9 | in range |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 10.5 | 8.8 | 2.8–20.8 | 20.3 | in range |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | 14.6 | 12.0 | 4.2–28.9 | 18.6 | in range |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | 7.5 | 5.7 | 1.1–16.5 | 14.4 | in range |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.7–25.9 | 12.7 | in range |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | WR | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.0–7.1 | 12.4 | above range |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 12.2 | 9.7 | 2.7–24.9 | 12.1 | in range |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 7.3 | 5.4 | 1.0–16.6 | 8.9 | in range |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 4.9 | 3.4 | 0.0–11.3 | 6.2 | in range |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RB | 5.1 | 3.6 | 0.5–11.7 | 0.9 | in range |
| CJ Donaldson | NO | RB | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0–2.7 | 3.3 | above range |
| Bryce Lance | NO | WR | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.0–7.4 | 1.2 | in range |
| Zachariah Branch | ATL | WR | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0–2.4 | 2.0 | in range |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | TE | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0–5.0 | 1.4 | in range |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.0–3.4 | 0.0 | in range |
| Oscar Delp | NO | TE | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.6 | 0.0 | in range |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.2 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring computed from the ESPN box score with FanDuel's rules: half-PPR, 2-point conversions, and +3 bonuses for 100+ rushing, 100+ receiving and 300+ passing yards. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | Rush yds | 91.0 | 54.0–161.0 | 145 | in range |
| Bijan Robinson | Carries | 19.0 | 13.0–27.0 | 19 | in range |
| Bijan Robinson | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 1 | in range |
| Tyler Shough | Pass yds | 237.0 | 139.0–329.0 | 286 | in range |
| Tyler Shough | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 1 | in range |
| Tyler Shough | Rush yds | 17.0 | 1.0–46.0 | 5 | in range |
| Chris Olave | Rec yds | 65.0 | 24.0–143.0 | 116 | in range |
| Chris Olave | Catches | 6.0 | 3.0–10.0 | 8 | in range |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Pass yds | 203.0 | 107.0–309.0 | 223 | in range |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 1 | in range |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Rush yds | 1.0 | -1.0–17.0 | -2 | below |
| Drake London | Rec yds | 58.0 | 16.0–137.0 | 96 | in range |
| Drake London | Catches | 4.0 | 2.0–8.0 | 5 | in range |
| Alvin Kamara | Rush yds | 37.0 | 13.0–85.0 | 23 | in range |
| Alvin Kamara | Carries | 13.0 | 7.0–19.0 | 7 | in range |
| Alvin Kamara | Catches | 2.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 5 | above |
| Devaughn Vele | Rec yds | 29.0 | 5.0–79.0 | 54 | in range |
| Devaughn Vele | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 6 | in range |
| Juwan Johnson | Rec yds | 28.0 | 6.0–79.0 | 59 | in range |
| Juwan Johnson | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 6 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 30 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (12 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 5 won, 6 lost, 1 void (did not play), for −1.80 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 5-6; overs 0-0.
Not in the official record: 18 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 6 won, 10 lost, 2 void, −5.22 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | Catches | Under 3.5 | +128 FanDuel | +5.5% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Drake London | Catches | Under 5.5 | +102 FanDuel | +4.8% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Win | +1.02 |
| Bijan Robinson | Catches | Under 4.5 | −114 FanDuel | +2.5% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.88 |
| Chris Olave | Catches | Under 7.5 | −166 FanDuel | +1.9% | Yes (fair) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jahan Dotson | Catches | Under 1.5 | +112 FanDuel | +1.8% | Yes (fair) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Rush yds | Under 5.5 | −114 FanDuel | +1.0% | Yes (fair) | -2 | Win | +0.88 |
| Austin Hooper | Catches | Under 1.5 | −182 FanDuel | +0.9% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +0.55 |
| Alvin Kamara | Catches | Under 3.5 | −172 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Juwan Johnson | Catches | Under 3.5 | −114 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Austin Hooper | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −114 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 9 | Win | +0.88 |
| Alvin Kamara | Rec yds | Under 15.5 | −114 FanDuel | +0.1% | Yes (fair) | 35 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Noah Fant | Catches | Under 1.5 | +152 FanDuel | +2.9% | Yes (fair) | — | Void | — |
| Austin Hooper | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +650 FanDuel | +75.1% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyle Pitts | Rec yds | Under 28.5 | −114 FanDuel | +27.3% | No (raw sim) | 47 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kyle Pitts | Catches | Under 2.5 | +105 Bovada | +26.7% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Devaughn Vele | Rec yds | Under 44.5 | −114 FanDuel | +19.3% | No (raw sim) | 54 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyler Shough | Pass yds | Under 254.5 | −114 FanDuel | +14.4% | No (raw sim) | 286 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kendre Miller | Rush yds | Under 25.5 | −112 DraftKings | +12.7% | No (raw sim) | 9 | Win | +0.89 |
| Jahan Dotson | Rec yds | Under 18.5 | −112 DraftKings | +8.4% | No (raw sim) | 54 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tyler Shough | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +240 DraftKings | +7.9% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Chris Olave | Catches | Over 6.5 | −135 BetMGM | +7.7% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Win | +0.74 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Rec yds | Under 7.5 | −114 FanDuel | +7.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.88 |
| Bijan Robinson | Rec yds | Under 39.5 | −114 FanDuel | +4.7% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.88 |
| Brian Robinson | Rush yds | Under 29.5 | −114 FanDuel | +3.9% | No (raw sim) | 62 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Catches | Under 1.5 | −193 DraftKings | +3.6% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.52 |
| Bijan Robinson | Rush yds | Over 85.5 | −114 FanDuel | +2.6% | No (raw sim) | 145 | Win | +0.88 |
| Drake London | Rec yds | Under 78.5 | −114 FanDuel | +2.1% | No (raw sim) | 96 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jahan Dotson | Catches | Under 1.5 | +100 BetMGM | +0.3% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Noah Fant | Rec yds | Under 16.5 | −114 FanDuel | +11.7% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
| Noah Fant | Catches | Under 1.5 | +127 BetOnline | +0.6% | No (raw sim) | — | Void | — |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 2 won, 1 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 10 won, 15 lost, 3 void.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record