PropGame recaps › Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30: our projections vs the box score
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
The Seahawks beat the Chargers 30-23 (kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 3:25 PM CT). This recap compares the projections we published before kickoff with the final box score, then grades every prop forecast we logged before the game. Nothing below was adjusted after the game.
Projection note: the projections graded here came from an earlier simulation (last refreshed 10:34 a.m. CT), not a final pre-kickoff refresh. From 2:02 p.m. CT until kickoff, our live updater queued re-simulations for this game, but every one was held back by a failing automated check on other games (a bug in the updater, since fixed). Status changes on these two teams that the published projections and prop prices did not reflect: DJ Uiagalelei (LAC) active to out; Ladd McConkey (LAC) questionable to active; Trey Lance (LAC) questionable to active; Jalen Milroe (SEA) active to out; Montorie Foster Jr. (SEA) active to out; Nick Kallerup (SEA) active to out. Results are graded against the projections as published.
Among the 16 fantasy-relevant players (projected or scoring 5+ FanDuel points), 10 finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (62%; a well-calibrated range should hold about 80%). Average miss versus our mean: 5.3 FanDuel points.
Who beat our range most: Kimani Vidal scored 10.6 FanDuel points against a projected median of 1.0 (90th percentile 5.3).
The biggest miss on the low side: Ladd McConkey managed 0.0 points against a 7.5 median (10th percentile 2.0). Our injury feed listed him as out after kickoff (first seen 5:41 PM CT).
Projections vs results (FanDuel points)
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj. mean | Median | 10–90 range | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | 11.4 | 9.4 | 2.9–23.0 | 25.5 | above range |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 17.4 | 15.0 | 5.1–33.7 | 10.1 | in range |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 16.8 | 15.6 | 8.3–26.9 | 11.6 | in range |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 16.4 | 14.6 | 7.1–28.1 | 14.3 | in range |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 9.6 | 7.9 | 2.9–19.0 | 12.3 | in range |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | 4.4 | 3.3 | 0.0–9.5 | 11.8 | above range |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.0–5.3 | 10.6 | above range |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 9.3 | 7.5 | 2.0–19.5 | 0.0 | below range |
| Keaton Mitchell | LAC | RB | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.2–8.4 | 8.8 | above range |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 7.7 | 6.1 | 1.4–16.7 | 4.5 | in range |
| Tre' Harris | LAC | WR | 7.7 | 6.0 | 1.4–16.7 | 7.5 | in range |
| Tory Horton | SEA | WR | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0–3.7 | 7.1 | above range |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 6.8 | 5.0 | 0.9–15.3 | 1.7 | in range |
| George Holani | SEA | RB | 6.6 | 4.9 | 0.6–14.7 | 2.5 | in range |
| Oronde Gadsden II | LAC | TE | 5.7 | 4.1 | 0.0–13.1 | 6.3 | in range |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 5.3 | 4.0 | 0.0–11.3 | 1.8 | in range |
| Eric Saubert | SEA | TE | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.9 | 0.0 | in range |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | LAC | WR | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0–1.7 | 0.0 | in range |
FanDuel scoring computed from the ESPN box score with FanDuel's rules: half-PPR, 2-point conversions, and +3 bonuses for 100+ rushing, 100+ receiving and 300+ passing yards. 'No box-score line' means the player recorded no stats (did not play or was not targeted).
Stat projections vs box score
| Player | Stat | Our median | 10–90 range | Actual | vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Rec yds | 81.0 | 30.0–174.0 | 76 | in range |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Catches | 6.0 | 3.0–10.0 | 5 | in range |
| Justin Herbert | Pass yds | 238.0 | 155.0–325.0 | 189 | in range |
| Justin Herbert | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 1 | in range |
| Justin Herbert | Rush yds | 17.0 | 1.0–47.0 | 40 | in range |
| Sam Darnold | Pass yds | 240.0 | 141.0–333.0 | 168 | in range |
| Sam Darnold | Pass TD | 1.0 | 0.0–4.0 | 2 | in range |
| Sam Darnold | Rush yds | 1.0 | -1.0–18.0 | 6 | in range |
| Emanuel Wilson | Rush yds | 48.0 | 20.0–102.0 | 81 | in range |
| Emanuel Wilson | Carries | 15.0 | 9.0–22.0 | 21 | in range |
| Emanuel Wilson | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–2.0 | 3 | above |
| Omarion Hampton | Rush yds | 43.0 | 18.0–95.0 | 45 | in range |
| Omarion Hampton | Carries | 12.0 | 7.0–19.0 | 9 | in range |
| Omarion Hampton | Catches | 1.0 | 0.0–3.0 | 2 | in range |
| Ladd McConkey | Rec yds | 45.0 | 11.0–110.0 | 0 | below |
| Ladd McConkey | Catches | 4.0 | 1.0–7.0 | 0 | below |
| Quentin Johnston | Rec yds | 36.0 | 7.0–95.0 | 44 | in range |
| Quentin Johnston | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 1 | in range |
| Tre' Harris | Rec yds | 35.0 | 7.0–93.0 | 60 | in range |
| Tre' Harris | Catches | 3.0 | 1.0–6.0 | 3 | in range |
Props graded
We logged 32 sportsbook forecasts with positive estimated EV for this game before kickoff (final pre-kickoff version of each). Official record (8 picks priced on our market-blended fair probability, as the board showed them): 4 won, 4 lost, for +0.29 units at the posted prices (1 unit risked per pick). Unders went 3-4; overs 1-0.
Not in the official record: 24 rows whose final pre-kickoff version was still priced on raw simulation probability (logged before the board switched to fair probabilities and never re-logged). Graded anyway and listed below: 11 won, 13 lost, +8.31 units. Grading rule.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Price | Est. EV | Official | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tory Horton | Catches | Under 0.5 | +182 FanDuel | +5.5% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Emanuel Wilson | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +140 FanDuel | +2.3% | Yes (fair) | 1 | Win | +1.40 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Catches | Under 6.5 | +112 FanDuel | +2.1% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Win | +1.12 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | Catches | Under 2.5 | +112 FanDuel | +1.2% | Yes (fair) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| George Holani | Rush yds | Under 31.5 | −113 FanDuel | +1.1% | Yes (fair) | 18 | Win | +0.89 |
| Sam Darnold | Rush yds | Under 4.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.4% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Keaton Mitchell | Rec yds | Under 10.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.3% | Yes (fair) | 24 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tory Horton | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.2% | Yes (fair) | 6 | Win | +0.89 |
| Emanuel Wilson | Rec yds | Under 6.5 | −110 BetMGM | +78.0% | No (raw sim) | 39 | Loss | −1.00 |
| George Holani | Catches | Under 1.5 | −106 FanDuel | +43.8% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.94 |
| George Holani | Rec yds | Under 9.5 | −113 FanDuel | +35.8% | No (raw sim) | 2 | Win | +0.89 |
| Keaton Mitchell | Catches | Under 1.5 | −114 FanDuel | +33.1% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| AJ Barner | Rec yds | Under 30.5 | −113 FanDuel | +30.7% | No (raw sim) | 12 | Win | +0.89 |
| Justin Herbert | Pass yds | Over 199.5 | −113 FanDuel | +30.6% | No (raw sim) | 189 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | Catches | Under 2.5 | +100 BetMGM | +29.8% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rashid Shaheed | Rec yds | Under 23.5 | −113 FanDuel | +21.4% | No (raw sim) | 20 | Win | +0.89 |
| Keaton Mitchell | Rush yds | Under 18.5 | −113 FanDuel | +20.2% | No (raw sim) | 39 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | Rec yds | Under 27.5 | −113 FanDuel | +17.4% | No (raw sim) | 36 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Catches | Over 7.5 | +105 Bovada | +13.2% | No (raw sim) | 5 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Rashid Shaheed | Catches | Under 2.5 | −166 FanDuel | +12.5% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.60 |
| Cooper Kupp | Catches | Under 2.5 | −132 DraftKings | +11.1% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +0.76 |
| Eric Saubert | Catches | Under 0.5 | −145 BetMGM | +10.9% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.69 |
| Justin Herbert | Rush yds | Under 20.5 | −113 FanDuel | +9.5% | No (raw sim) | 40 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Kimani Vidal | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +1300 BetOnline | +8.6% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +13.00 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Rec yds | Over 93.5 | −113 FanDuel | +7.6% | No (raw sim) | 76 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tre' Harris | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +500 FanDuel | +6.0% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Sam Darnold | Pass yds | Over 233.5 | −113 FanDuel | +3.0% | No (raw sim) | 168 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Tre' Harris | Catches | Under 3.5 | −160 FanDuel | +2.3% | No (raw sim) | 3 | Win | +0.62 |
| Tre' Harris | Rec yds | Under 36.5 | −113 FanDuel | +2.2% | No (raw sim) | 60 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Emanuel Wilson | Anytime TD | Over 0.5 | +115 BetMGM | +1.8% | No (raw sim) | 1 | Win | +1.15 |
| Omarion Hampton | Rec yds | Under 7.5 | −120 BetMGM | +1.4% | No (raw sim) | 8 | Loss | −1.00 |
| Ladd McConkey | Rec yds | Under 47.5 | −113 FanDuel | +0.2% | No (raw sim) | 0 | Win | +0.89 |
Official = the pick's final pre-kickoff version was priced on our market-blended fair probability. 'No (raw sim)' rows were logged before the site switched EV to fair probabilities (08:22 CT on Oct 4, 2026) and never re-logged; they are graded and shown here but are not part of the official record. A player who appears only in the play-by-play is graded as 0. Not betting advice. 21+.
Pick'em forecasts (Underdog and PrizePicks two-leg format, graded per leg), official: 1 won, 0 lost. Raw-sim rows, not in the official record: 13 won, 19 lost, 2 void.
Correction (Oct 4, 2026, 7:23 PM CT): actual FanDuel points in this recap now include FanDuel's +3 yardage bonuses and 2-point conversions, and count negative yardage (e.g. -6 rushing yards) instead of zero; the first version did not, which changed 1 player totals. Projections and prop results did not change.
How these numbers are made: methodology. The full graded log, every week, lives on the Track Record.
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Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Methodology · Track record