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Buffalo Bills Week 4 projections and player props

NE at BUF · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · game page · opponent: New England Patriots · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

The market implies 28.5 points for the Buffalo Bills and 21.5 for New England Patriots (median of 11 books). Our model projects Josh Allen (BUF vs NE) for a median 233 passing yards (FanDuel line 242.5; 10th-90th percentile 151-317.1) and 35 rushing yards (FanDuel line 31.5; 10th-90th percentile 9-69) in Week 4. Our model projects James Cook III (BUF vs NE) for a median 89 rushing yards (FanDuel line 84.5; 10th-90th percentile 52-163) and 6 receiving yards (FanDuel line 7.5; 10th-90th percentile 0-28) in Week 4.

Rank	Player	Opp	Half-PPR median	Floor p10	Ceiling p85	PPR median	Std median	Key stats (median)
QB1	Josh Allen	NE	22.6	13.0	33.5	22.6	22.6	233 passing yards, 35 rushing yards
RB9	James Cook III	NE	14.9	6.9	26.0	15.7	14.1	89 rushing yards, 6 receiving yards
WR27	DJ Moore	NE	7.3	1.6	16.4	9.1	5.5	37 receiving yards, 3 receptions
TE7	Dalton Kincaid	NE	7.3	1.6	16.3	9.1	5.4	44 receiving yards, 3 receptions
WR37	Khalil Shakir	NE	6.1	1.3	14.4	7.9	4.1	28 receiving yards, 3 receptions
WR64	Keon Coleman	NE	3.5	0.0	8.7	4.6	2.4	18 receiving yards, 2 receptions
TE39	Dawson Knox (limited)	NE	2.6	0.0	5.2	3.4	1.8
RB52	Ty Johnson	NE	2.5	0.0	7.3	3.4	1.6
RB101	Brock Lampe (limited)	NE	0.1	0.0	1.7	0.1	0.0
RB118	Ray DavisQ (limited)	NE	0.0	0.0	1.3	0.0	0.0
TE74	Jackson Hawes (limited)	NE	0.0	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0

Players sorted by half-PPR median. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations of the game. Click a player for stat projections and every prop line we price.

Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. All teams · Week 4 rankings · Props board