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New England Patriots Week 4 projections and player props
NE at BUF · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · game page · opponent: Buffalo Bills ·
The market implies 21.5 points for the New England Patriots and 28.5 for Buffalo Bills (median of 11 books). Our model projects Drake Maye (NE vs BUF) for a median 227 passing yards (FanDuel line 231.5; 10th-90th percentile 137-331) and 21 rushing yards (FanDuel line 27.5; 10th-90th percentile 1-58) in Week 4. Our model projects Rhamondre Stevenson (NE vs BUF) for a median 28 rushing yards (FanDuel line 32.5; 10th-90th percentile 8-71) and 14 receiving yards (FanDuel line 17.5; 10th-90th percentile 0-47) in Week 4.
| Rank | Player | Opp | Half-PPR median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 | PPR median | Std median | Key stats (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB18 | Drake Maye | BUF | 15.7 | 7.9 | 24.6 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 227 passing yards, 21 rushing yards |
| RB28 | Rhamondre Stevenson | BUF | 7.5 | 2.5 | 15.1 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 28 rushing yards, 14 receiving yards |
| RB30 | TreVeyon Henderson | BUF | 6.9 | 2.1 | 14.7 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 41 rushing yards, 3 receiving yards |
| TE11 | Hunter Henry | BUF | 6.0 | 1.4 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 32 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| WR44 | Mack Hollins | BUF | 5.6 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 30 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| WR50 | Romeo Doubs | BUF | 5.2 | 1.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 31 receiving yards, 2 receptions |
| WR63 | DeMario Douglas | BUF | 3.6 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 19 receiving yards, 2 receptions |
| WR102 | Kyle Williams (limited) | BUF | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | |
| RB73 | Lan Larison (limited) | BUF | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | |
| RB76 | Corey Kiner (limited) | BUF | 0.8 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | |
| TE59 | Eli RaridonQ (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| WR136 | Efton Chism III (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| WR117 | Marcus Jones (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| TE75 | Tanner Conner (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Players sorted by half-PPR median. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations of the game. Click a player for stat projections and every prop line we price.
Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. All teams · Week 4 rankings · Props board