PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Javonte Williams or Ashton Jeanty: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Javonte Williams: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET · Ashton Jeanty: LV vs NE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Javonte Williams edges Ashton Jeanty, outscoring him in 52.9% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (55%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Javonte Williams (p10 6.6). Need upside? Javonte Williams (p85 28.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Javonte Williams | 53% | RB7 | 16.0 | 6.6 | 28.6 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 47% | RB10 | 15.5 | 6.6 | 26.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Javonte Williams | 55% | RB8 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 27.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 45% | RB11 | 13.6 | 5.4 | 24.0 | |
| Standard | Javonte Williams | 56% | RB7 | 13.2 | 4.8 | 25.4 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 44% | RB12 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 21.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.