PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Christian McCaffrey or Javonte Williams: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Christian McCaffrey: SF vs SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Javonte Williams: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Christian McCaffrey edges Javonte Williams, outscoring him in 52.9% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Christian McCaffrey (51%). Standard: Javonte Williams (52%). Need a safe floor? Christian McCaffrey (p10 7.6). Need upside? Christian McCaffrey (p85 28.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Christian McCaffrey | 53% | RB5 | 17.1 | 7.6 | 28.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 47% | RB7 | 16.0 | 6.6 | 28.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Christian McCaffrey | 51% | RB7 | 15.0 | 6.4 | 25.8 |
| Javonte Williams | 49% | RB8 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 27.0 | |
| Standard | Christian McCaffrey | 48% | RB9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 23.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 52% | RB7 | 13.2 | 4.8 | 25.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.