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Should I start Christian McCaffrey in Week 4?
Week 4, 2026 · SF vs DEN · kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET ·
PropSims ranks Christian McCaffrey RB9 in half-PPR for Week 4 (SF vs DEN): start in a 12-team league. Median 14.0 points, floor 4.8 (p10), ceiling 25.6 (p85), from 10,000 simulations of the game. PPR: RB9 (median 15.7). Standard: RB9 (median 12.3).
| Scoring | Rank | Call | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | RB9 | Start | 15.7 | 5.9 | 27.8 |
| Half-PPR | RB9 | Start | 14.0 | 4.8 | 25.6 |
| Standard | RB9 | Start | 12.3 | 3.7 | 23.6 |
Game environment: SF market-implied team total 25.5 vs 23.0 for DEN (median of 11 books via The Odds API). Usage this season (3 games): 21% target share, 47% carry share, 63% snap rate (nflverse).
Close calls: Christian McCaffrey vs similar RBs
- Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry? Christian McCaffrey outscores Derrick Henry in 45% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Jaylen Warren? Christian McCaffrey outscores Jaylen Warren in 46% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor? Christian McCaffrey outscores Jonathan Taylor in 46% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Kyren Williams? Christian McCaffrey outscores Kyren Williams in 51% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Ashton Jeanty? Christian McCaffrey outscores Ashton Jeanty in 54% of simulated games (half-PPR).
- Christian McCaffrey or Chuba Hubbard? Christian McCaffrey outscores Chuba Hubbard in 56% of simulated games (half-PPR).
Ranked nearby (RB, half-PPR): Jaylen Warren (RB7), Jonathan Taylor (RB8), Kyren Williams (RB10), Ashton Jeanty (RB11).
Compare Christian McCaffrey with anyone in the Start/Sit assistant →
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Numbers are PropSims own-model output from 10,000 simulations of every Week 4 game; ranks assume a 12-team league (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX). Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Methodology · All Week 4 rankings