PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Aaron Jones or Javonte Williams: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Aaron Jones: MIN vs NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Javonte Williams: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
START AARON JONESCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Aaron Jones edges Javonte Williams, outscoring him in 52.8% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (53%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Aaron Jones (p10 7.6). Need upside? Aaron Jones (p85 28.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Aaron Jones | 53% | RB6 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 28.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 47% | RB7 | 16.0 | 6.6 | 28.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Aaron Jones | 53% | RB5 | 15.5 | 6.7 | 27.0 |
| Javonte Williams | 47% | RB8 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 27.0 | |
| Standard | Aaron Jones | 53% | RB6 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 25.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 47% | RB7 | 13.2 | 4.8 | 25.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.