PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Mike Evans or Josh Downs: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Mike Evans: SF vs SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Josh Downs: IND vs PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START JOSH DOWNSCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Josh Downs edges Mike Evans, outscoring him in 50.9% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Mike Evans (50%). Standard: Mike Evans (51%). Need a safe floor? Josh Downs (p10 3.3). Need upside? Josh Downs (p85 19.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Mike Evans | 49% | WR24 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 19.6 |
| Josh Downs | 51% | WR21 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 19.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Mike Evans | 50% | WR26 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 16.6 |
| Josh Downs | 50% | WR25 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 16.6 | |
| Standard | Mike Evans | 51% | WR26 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 13.7 |
| Josh Downs | 49% | WR27 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 13.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.