PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Mike Evans or Carnell Tate: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Mike Evans: SF vs SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Carnell Tate: TEN vs HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START MIKE EVANSCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Mike Evans edges Carnell Tate, outscoring him in 50.8% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (51%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Carnell Tate (p10 3.5). Need upside? Mike Evans (p85 19.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Mike Evans | 51% | WR24 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 19.6 |
| Carnell Tate | 49% | WR27 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 18.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Mike Evans | 51% | WR26 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 16.6 |
| Carnell Tate | 49% | WR29 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 15.2 | |
| Standard | Mike Evans | 52% | WR26 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 13.7 |
| Carnell Tate | 48% | WR30 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 12.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.