PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Michael Wilson or Garrett Wilson: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Michael Wilson: ARI vs DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Garrett Wilson: NYJ vs CLE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Michael Wilson edges Garrett Wilson, outscoring him in 51.0% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (52%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Garrett Wilson (p10 6.0). Need upside? Michael Wilson (p85 26.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Michael Wilson | 51% | WR9 | 14.4 | 5.5 | 26.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 49% | WR10 | 14.1 | 6.0 | 24.4 | |
| Half-PPR | Michael Wilson | 52% | WR9 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 22.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 48% | WR11 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 20.0 | |
| Standard | Michael Wilson | 53% | WR10 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 18.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 47% | WR14 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 15.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.