PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Matthew Golden or Mike Evans: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Matthew Golden: GB vs CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Mike Evans: SF vs SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
START MATTHEW GOLDENCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Matthew Golden edges Mike Evans, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (51%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Matthew Golden (p10 3.2). Need upside? Matthew Golden (p85 19.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Matthew Golden | 51% | WR23 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 19.8 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR24 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 19.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Matthew Golden | 51% | WR22 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 16.9 |
| Mike Evans | 49% | WR26 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 16.6 | |
| Standard | Matthew Golden | 52% | WR25 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 14.0 |
| Mike Evans | 48% | WR26 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 13.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.