PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Kyren Williams or Aaron Jones: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Kyren Williams: LAR vs BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Aaron Jones: MIN vs NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START KYREN WILLIAMSCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Kyren Williams edges Aaron Jones, outscoring him in 51.2% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (50%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? Kyren Williams (p10 7.6). Need upside? Kyren Williams (p85 30.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kyren Williams | 51% | RB4 | 17.3 | 7.6 | 30.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 49% | RB6 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 28.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Kyren Williams | 50% | RB4 | 15.7 | 6.6 | 28.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 50% | RB5 | 15.5 | 6.7 | 27.0 | |
| Standard | Kyren Williams | 50% | RB5 | 14.1 | 5.5 | 26.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 50% | RB6 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 25.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.