PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › QB
Josh Allen or Drake Maye: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Josh Allen: BUF vs LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Drake Maye: NE vs LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START JOSH ALLEN
Start Josh Allen over Drake Maye in Week 5 (PPR): he outscores him in 63% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (63%) and standard (63%). Need a safe floor? Josh Allen (p10 12.2). Need upside? Josh Allen (p85 32.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Josh Allen | 63% | QB1 | 21.9 | 12.2 | 32.2 |
| Drake Maye | 37% | QB2 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 27.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Josh Allen | 63% | QB1 | 21.9 | 12.2 | 32.2 |
| Drake Maye | 37% | QB2 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 27.5 | |
| Standard | Josh Allen | 63% | QB1 | 21.9 | 12.2 | 32.2 |
| Drake Maye | 37% | QB2 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 27.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.