PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Jaylen Warren or Aaron Jones: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Jaylen Warren: PIT vs IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Aaron Jones: MIN vs NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START JAYLEN WARRENCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Jaylen Warren edges Aaron Jones, outscoring him in 53.0% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (53%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 8.5). Need upside? Jaylen Warren (p85 29.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jaylen Warren | 53% | RB3 | 17.9 | 8.5 | 29.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 47% | RB6 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 28.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Jaylen Warren | 53% | RB3 | 16.2 | 7.5 | 27.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 47% | RB5 | 15.5 | 6.7 | 27.0 | |
| Standard | Jaylen Warren | 52% | RB3 | 14.5 | 6.4 | 25.7 |
| Aaron Jones | 48% | RB6 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 25.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.