PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Jahmyr Gibbs or Aaron Jones: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Jahmyr Gibbs: DET vs ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · Aaron Jones: MIN vs NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START JAHMYR GIBBS
Start Jahmyr Gibbs over Aaron Jones in Week 5 (PPR): he outscores him in 62% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (61%) and standard (59%). Need a safe floor? Jahmyr Gibbs (p10 9.9). Need upside? Jahmyr Gibbs (p85 35.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 62% | RB1 | 21.4 | 9.9 | 35.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 38% | RB6 | 17.0 | 7.6 | 28.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Jahmyr Gibbs | 61% | RB2 | 19.3 | 8.5 | 33.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 39% | RB5 | 15.5 | 6.7 | 27.0 | |
| Standard | Jahmyr Gibbs | 59% | RB2 | 17.2 | 6.9 | 30.9 |
| Aaron Jones | 41% | RB6 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 25.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.