PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Derrick Henry or Javonte Williams: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Derrick Henry: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · Javonte Williams: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Javonte Williams edges Derrick Henry, outscoring him in 50.6% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Derrick Henry (51%). Standard: Derrick Henry (54%). Need a safe floor? Derrick Henry (p10 7.3). Need upside? Javonte Williams (p85 28.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Derrick Henry | 49% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.3 | 27.1 |
| Javonte Williams | 51% | RB7 | 16.0 | 6.6 | 28.6 | |
| Half-PPR | Derrick Henry | 51% | RB6 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 26.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 49% | RB8 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 27.0 | |
| Standard | Derrick Henry | 54% | RB4 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 25.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 46% | RB7 | 13.2 | 4.8 | 25.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.