PropNews › ARI
Hunter Long out for ARI vs DET: our model moves Trey McBride to 15.3 points
AI-assisted. Written automatically from our model's own numbers with fixed templates; nothing is invented, and no language model adds facts. How this works.
Our live updater picked up the following Cardinals status change at Oct 6, 2026, 4:08 PM CT and re-ran the ARI-DET simulations (10,000 games):
- Hunter Long (TE) was downgraded to out; he had been projected for 0.6 PPR points (median 0.0)
Fantasy outlook
- Trey McBride (TE): 14.8 → 15.3 PPR, TE1 → TE1. Verdict: a TE1 start.
PPR projection (mean of 10,000 sims) and weekly positional rank before and after this change. Verdicts use the same tiers as our start/sit page: top 12 QB/TE and top 24 RB/WR are starts, then flex range (QB 13-16, RB 25-32, WR 25-36, TE 13-16), otherwise bench. Rest-of-season impact not shown: our model projects one week at a time.
Who benefits
With him out this week: Half-PPR projection change vs the with-him baseline from our injury redistribution sims.
- Trey McBride (TE): 14.8 → 15.3 half-PPR (+0.5).
Rest of season
Multi-week (about 3 more games; expected return 2026-11-08) absence per our injury feed. Per-game change while he is out: a validated shrink (27%) on this week's with/without half-PPR delta from our injury redistribution sims (holdout MAE 3.635 vs null 4.318). Total = per-game change x 3 expected missed games after this week.
- Trey McBride (TE): PPG change while he is out +0.13, about +0.4 half-PPR over 3 expected missed games.
Source: live re-sim before/after (10,000 games). Numbers are half-PPR means from our own-model sims with vacated usage redistributed by the same injury rules we use in production. Model opinion, not advice. 21+.
Volume details from the re-sim
Most of the extra work flows to Trey McBride (TE), whose half-PPR projection moves from 14.8 to 15.3 (+0.5); median 13.2 to 13.4, 85th-percentile outcome 23.9 to 24.4.
| Player | Pos | Half-PPR before | After | Change | 85th pct | Volume (mean) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | TE | 14.8 | 15.3 | +0.5 | 23.9→24.4 | — |
Moves smaller than 0.5 points are within simulation noise for this refresh (largest move on an unaffected team: 0.4) and are not listed unless a volume stat moved.
See the full DET at ARI game page and the Arizona Cardinals page for every projection, or the props board for current lines.
Get the weekly email
Free, one email a week before Sunday kickoff: start/sit, official props (overs and unders), news that moved our numbers, and our full graded record. 21+. Not betting advice.
All news · Arizona Cardinals · DET at ARI · Model opinion, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.