PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Zay Flowers or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Zay Flowers: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START ZAY FLOWERSCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Zay Flowers edges Nico Collins, outscoring him in 51.8% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (52%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Zay Flowers (p10 6.8). Need upside? Zay Flowers (p85 31.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Zay Flowers | 52% | WR4 | 17.4 | 6.8 | 31.7 |
| Nico Collins | 48% | WR5 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 30.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Zay Flowers | 52% | WR4 | 14.4 | 5.3 | 27.3 |
| Nico Collins | 48% | WR5 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 25.9 | |
| Standard | Zay Flowers | 53% | WR4 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 23.1 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 21.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.