PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › QB
Tyler Shough or Joe Burrow: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Tyler Shough: NO vs MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Joe Burrow: CIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START TYLER SHOUGHCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Tyler Shough edges Joe Burrow, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Tyler Shough (p10 9.3). Need upside? Joe Burrow (p85 26.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tyler Shough | 51% | QB6 | 17.1 | 9.3 | 26.2 |
| Joe Burrow | 49% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Tyler Shough | 51% | QB6 | 17.1 | 9.3 | 26.2 |
| Joe Burrow | 49% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 | |
| Standard | Tyler Shough | 51% | QB6 | 17.1 | 9.3 | 26.2 |
| Joe Burrow | 49% | QB9 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 26.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.