PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › TE
T.J. Hockenson or Tucker Kraft: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Tucker Kraft: GB vs CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: T.J. Hockenson edges Tucker Kraft, outscoring him in 52.4% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: T.J. Hockenson (51%). Standard: Tucker Kraft (51%). Need a safe floor? T.J. Hockenson (p10 3.9). Need upside? T.J. Hockenson (p85 21.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | T.J. Hockenson | 52% | TE5 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 21.3 |
| Tucker Kraft | 48% | TE6 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 20.4 | |
| Half-PPR | T.J. Hockenson | 51% | TE5 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 17.3 |
| Tucker Kraft | 49% | TE6 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 16.8 | |
| Standard | T.J. Hockenson | 49% | TE5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 13.4 |
| Tucker Kraft | 51% | TE4 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 13.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.