PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Puka Nacua or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Puka Nacua: LAR vs BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START PUKA NACUA
Start Puka Nacua over Nico Collins in Week 5 (PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (56%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Puka Nacua (p10 8.2). Need upside? Puka Nacua (p85 33.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Puka Nacua | 57% | WR1 | 19.2 | 8.2 | 33.4 |
| Nico Collins | 43% | WR5 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 30.2 | |
| Half-PPR | Puka Nacua | 56% | WR2 | 15.5 | 6.2 | 28.4 |
| Nico Collins | 44% | WR5 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 25.9 | |
| Standard | Puka Nacua | 55% | WR2 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 23.6 |
| Nico Collins | 45% | WR5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 21.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.