PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Nico Collins or Ja'Marr Chase: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Nico Collins: HOU vs TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Ja'Marr Chase: CIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
START NICO COLLINS
Start Nico Collins over Ja'Marr Chase in Week 5 (PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in half-PPR (57%) and standard (58%). Need a safe floor? Nico Collins (p10 6.6). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 30.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Nico Collins | 56% | WR5 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 30.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 44% | WR7 | 14.5 | 5.4 | 26.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Nico Collins | 57% | WR5 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 25.9 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 43% | WR8 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 21.9 | |
| Standard | Nico Collins | 58% | WR5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 21.8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 42% | WR8 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 17.9 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.