PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Nico Collins or Amon-Ra St. Brown: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Nico Collins: HOU vs TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Amon-Ra St. Brown: DET vs ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
START NICO COLLINSCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Nico Collins edges Amon-Ra St. Brown, outscoring him in 50.9% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (52%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Nico Collins (p10 6.6). Need upside? Nico Collins (p85 30.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Nico Collins | 51% | WR5 | 16.7 | 6.6 | 30.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49% | WR6 | 16.5 | 6.4 | 29.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Nico Collins | 52% | WR5 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 25.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 48% | WR6 | 13.0 | 4.6 | 25.1 | |
| Standard | Nico Collins | 53% | WR5 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 21.8 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 47% | WR6 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 20.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.