PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › WR
Matthew Golden or Josh Downs: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Matthew Golden: GB vs CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Josh Downs: IND vs PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Josh Downs edges Matthew Golden, outscoring him in 50.5% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Matthew Golden (51%). Standard: Matthew Golden (52%). Need a safe floor? Josh Downs (p10 3.3). Need upside? Matthew Golden (p85 19.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Matthew Golden | 50% | WR23 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 19.8 |
| Josh Downs | 50% | WR21 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 19.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Matthew Golden | 51% | WR22 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 16.9 |
| Josh Downs | 49% | WR25 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 16.6 | |
| Standard | Matthew Golden | 52% | WR25 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 14.0 |
| Josh Downs | 48% | WR27 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 13.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.