PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › QB
Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Lamar Jackson: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · Dak Prescott: DAL vs TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
START LAMAR JACKSONCOIN FLIP
Coin flip in Week 5: Lamar Jackson edges Dak Prescott, outscoring him in 50.8% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in half-PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Lamar Jackson (p10 10.0). Need upside? Dak Prescott (p85 27.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Lamar Jackson | 51% | QB3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 49% | QB4 | 17.7 | 9.0 | 27.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Lamar Jackson | 51% | QB3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 49% | QB4 | 17.7 | 9.0 | 27.8 | |
| Standard | Lamar Jackson | 51% | QB3 | 17.9 | 10.0 | 27.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 49% | QB4 | 17.7 | 9.0 | 27.8 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.