PropStart/Sit › Week 5 close calls › RB
Kyren Williams or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 5 PPR?
· Kyren Williams: LAR vs BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 5: Kyren Williams edges Derrick Henry, outscoring him in 54.4% of 10,000 simulated games (PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Half-PPR: Kyren Williams (52%). Standard: Derrick Henry (51%). Need a safe floor? Kyren Williams (p10 7.6). Need upside? Kyren Williams (p85 30.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Kyren Williams | 54% | RB4 | 17.3 | 7.6 | 30.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 46% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.3 | 27.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Kyren Williams | 52% | RB4 | 15.7 | 6.6 | 28.5 |
| Derrick Henry | 48% | RB6 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 26.2 | |
| Standard | Kyren Williams | 49% | RB5 | 14.1 | 5.5 | 26.6 |
| Derrick Henry | 51% | RB4 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 25.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.